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Web 2.0 發展趨勢 盧希鵬 國立台灣科技大學資訊管理系教授
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大綱 Web 1.0不曾泡沫化:贏者全拿(Web 2.0呢?) Web 2.0改變了什麼? Web 2.0營運模式
The Person of the Year: YOU 真正人類的聲音 市場的結構 Web 2.0營運模式
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Web 1.0不曾泡沫化: 贏者全拿(Web 2.0呢?)
What’s next (科技化服務業) Machine to Machine Growth People to Machine People to People Web1.0 網路內容由菁英決定 商品由店家提供 印刷術、總編輯 星狀網路 Web2.0 UGC(User-Generated Content) Sharing Building Social Network (分散又聯結) Time
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User-Generated Content
Context User-Generated Content Community Commerce Building Social Network Sales, Service, Marketing Content Webware Mushup Market Structure Social Network Web2.0 Value Individual Tech Long Tail Sharing Social Capital Web 2.0 Economy Make Search Access e-Personality Real Voice of Human Beings Community Cluster Weak Tie Sales Service Marketing [此模式為台灣科大與台北大學合作之研究計畫]
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Tech:電子商務不曾泡沫化 Tech Growth Social Capital Intellectual Capital Time
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Tech: 產生長尾效應 Sales 品項排行榜 麻雀變鳳凰 取得長尾(低access cost) Search Access Make
(低searching cost) 取得長尾(低access cost) Search Access Make 造成長尾 (高Uniqueness) 品項排行榜
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生產工具(文字、音樂、影片編輯、數位相機、Picasa、手機攝影) 生產者=消費者:業餘專家、烏合之眾的力量(群眾智慧、夠多的手、與眼睛)
Tech Make 生產工具(文字、音樂、影片編輯、數位相機、Picasa、手機攝影) 生產者=消費者:業餘專家、烏合之眾的力量(群眾智慧、夠多的手、與眼睛) 個人出版的成本降低(作家、歌星、演員….) 太多選擇(喜歡)=無從選擇(交易)(MP3, 果醬試吃、iPod, Netflix) 協助選擇(推薦):買A也買B、評比、排行榜(從他性)、和你類似人的選擇、個人化、Tag 出版成本高:前篩(預測)。出版成本低:後篩(評比) 存取:整合長尾、平台、手機、On-Demand 數位服務、數位庫存、物流 Search Access
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經營模式:Content-Oriented
Tech Content User Filtering (3) Recommending Provider (2) Mushup (1) Webware Intellectual Capital Social Make Webware: allowing people to download or use webware to accomplish specific services. (Writely, Picasa) Search Content: developing recommending or filtering systems to help people get the personalized information. (Amazon, Adword) Access Mushup: integrating multiple sources of information and website functions. (HousingMap mushups Google map and apartment rental information from Craigslist to a house searching engine. )
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Individual 真正人類的聲音: 人們為什麼要分享 不在乎平均、只在乎個人(別人無用但我有用)
線上 人格 人類 聲音 Individual 真正人類的聲音: 不做作 無關品質、關於你是否有話說、你可以作錯! 人們為什麼要分享 名譽經濟學:不求名、不求利、只求爽 助人心理學 不在乎平均、只在乎個人(別人無用但我有用) 忠誠與Switching Cost(逃避自由) Procedure Finance Relation
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Individual 線上 人格 人類 聲音 Web 2.0營運模式 Context: As a context-oriented business model, the business does not provide information, but operates as a platform that allows people to share their articles, photos, music…..etc. with each other. Avoiding the complexity of navigation, the model operators have to aggregate and structure information of multi-sources for the users through navigation services. Examples of context-oriented model consist of MySpace, Youtube, Wikipedia, Digg, eBay….etc.[Yu, 2007] User Context
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Social Network: Metcalfe’s Law
User User 若有n個人使用電話,它的通訊方向的價值便有n(n-1)種,如果n很大的話,就趨近於n平方種了 User User User User User User User User 2x(2-1) = 2 3x(3-1) = 6 n x (n-1) ≒ n2 User 使用人數由二人增加到四人(2倍),通訊的方向便由二種到十二種(卻有6倍) User User + User User = 2x(2-1) = 2 2x(2-1) = 2 4x(4-1) = 12 網路世界中鼓勵合作與聯盟。 獲得關鍵臨界數量的企業,將大者恆大。 累進學習的重要
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Social Network Cluster Cluster Hub or Authority Cluster Cluster Social
Innovation Diffusion & Strong Tie User User Cluster User User User User User User Cluster User Hub or Authority User User Innovation Diffusion & Weak Tie User User User Cluster User User Cluster
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Small World (Nexus) Social Network 14 15 13 12 16 11 17 10 1 2 9 3 8 4
User User User 12 16 User User 11 17 User User User 10 1 User User 2 User 9 User 3 User 8 User User User User 4 7 5 6
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經營模式:Community-Oriented
Social Network 經營模式:Community-Oriented User Community: Gathering People as clusters. Connection: building social network rather than accumulate content. Through on-line sharing and collaboration, people can connect with friend’s friends to enlarge their social network. ( Linkedin, CyWorld, Facebook, Myspace, )
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結論:下一步(市場=人群結構) Transformation TO BE AS IS Market Structure Market
Youtube TO BE Amazon AS IS Blog Context Adword Market Structure Content Community Cyworld Linkedin Site G Site H Web 1.0 e-Publish Web 2.0 e-Society
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結論:新市場 Platform Market Segment to Social Network Outsourcing (菁英智慧) to
Community Platform Content Mushup Webware Context Market Segment to Social Network Outsourcing (菁英智慧) to Crowdsourcing (群眾智慧) 前篩預測 (Make & sales) to 後篩評價 (Sense & Response 人來(店址) to 我去(人群) 大眾統計 (提供選擇) to 小眾個人 (協助選擇)
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User-Generated Content
Market Structure 結論:Web 2.0新經濟 Web 2.0 New Economy Place: 狩獵 到 畜牧 Product: 酋長經濟 Promotion: 促銷 到 分享 Price: 彈性定價、Free Market Structure Social Network Individual Tech Content Context User-Generated Content Community Commerce Building Social Network Sales, Service, Marketing
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結論:新機會 Platform Market Structure 機會在哪裡(Customer) Marketing Sales:
Service 競爭者在哪裡 (Competition) 獲取機會的能力在哪裡 (Compentence) Intellectual Capital Social Capital 極化 Polarization Community Platform Content Mushup Webware Context
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Platform Market Structure 機會在哪裡(Customer) 競爭者在哪裡(Competition)
Marketing Sales: Service 競爭者在哪裡(Competition) 獲取機會的能力在哪裡(Company) Intellectual Capital Social Capital Community Platform Content Mushup Webware Context
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Integration Branding & Identity
Brand A Brand B Brand C Strategy Contents Solution Market Segment to Social Network Outsourcing(菁英智慧) to Crowdsourcing(群眾智慧 討論以長遠為考量的系統整合方案 網站整合更新專案
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人來OR我去 大眾OR小眾 機會在哪裡(Customer) 競爭者在哪裡(Competition) 獲取機會的能力在哪裡(Company)
Marketing Sales:供需決定價格 (彈性價格)、統購 Service 競爭者在哪裡(Competition) 獲取機會的能力在哪裡(Company) Intellectual Capital Social Capital
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Web 2.0 Business Model Supplier Customer Supplier Customer
線上 人格 人類 聲音 Individual Access 強弱 連結 Supplier Tech Social Network Customer Search 小 世界 Supplier Customer Make 創新 擴散 Market Structure Service Marketing Sales [此模式為台灣科大與台北大學合作之研究計畫]
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eCompany Supplier Customer Buy Side Sell Side Partner Stockholder
供應鏈管理 資源管理 知識管理 專案管理 行銷管理 Partner Stockholder Employee IPS SCM IRM PRM e-Marketing GW+KMS EDMS Buy Side Sell Side ERP EIP
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ebiz Integration Creative Strategy eSolution Interaction System Design
Consulting Marketing Contents Flash Design Coding CTI UMS Mailing Server D/B Creative Interaction System ebiz Integration Strategy Sopping eCRM IRM VOC/ RMS e- Learning eSolution
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Process Offer Customer Partner Network Opportunity Value Configuration
Value Proposition Relationship Target Cost Structure Revenue Streams Strategy
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