Jeff Rufener (MCFA), ITA

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1 Jeff Rufener (MCFA), ITA
Presidents’ Forum 主席论坛 Jeff Rufener (MCFA), ITA 30 October 2010 Istanbul, Turkey

2 Retail Orders and Shipments
零售订单和发货发展趋势 订单 发货 12个月滚动累计月度统计表 -11% -28% +31% This graph shows US and Canada lift truck industry orders and shipments history from 1982 to 2010. 这个图展示了美国和加拿大叉车市场从1982年到2010年的订单和发货历史数据 Like most capital goods, lift truck demand is tied to general economic activity and is highly cyclical. 像大部分的生产资料一样，叉车的需求与总体经济活动是紧密相关的，并且是高度循环的 The vertical gray bars are official periods of recession in the US economy. 表中的灰色竖条是美国经济当中官方公布的经济衰退期 The duration of this most recent recession and the subsequent depth and rate of decline in lift truck demand is startling, even in hindsight 最近这一次的经济衰退持续时间的长度，及伴随而来的叉车市场需求的下降程度，都是非常令人震惊的和迅速的。 Our industry peaked in 2006 with 208K units ordered and then declined 11%, 28%, and 55% respectively in subsequent years. 我们的叉车行业在2006年达到20.8万台订单的最高纪录，然后在随后几年分别下降了11%、28%和55% Finally, at the end of 2009, we started to see consistent month to month growth and YTD 2010 is up 31% over the same period last year. 最终，在2009年末，我们开始见到持续几个月的增长，目前，与去年同期相比，2010年的累计数已经增长了31% -55%

3 Industry Change and GDP行业变化和GDP
GDP growth of > 2.6% drives market expansion GDP增长> 2.6%时能驱动市场的扩张 2010 Forecast 2010年预测 2011Forecast 2011年预测 2009 2008 Actual 2008实际 北美地区叉车行业变化%（零售订单） % Change in North America Total Industry (Retail Orders) In 20 of the last 30 years, US GDP growth has equaled or exceeded 2.6%. 美国国内生产总值的年增长率在过去的30年中有20次等于或超过2.6% In 19 of those 20 years, the lift truck industry has grown. 在那20年的GDP增长当中，工业车辆市场有19次是上升的 Obviously and understandably, GDP growth rates are highly predictive of forklift demand and this chart shows that correlation. 很明显也很容易理解的，GDP的增长率对叉车市场需求提供了很好的预估，这个表格体现了他们之间的相互关系 The insight is that GDP growth alone is insufficient to drive growth in the forklift industry. It must be 2.6% or higher. 我们可以从中观察到，单单GDP的增长并没有办法驱动叉车行业需求的增加，但当GDP增长到达和超过2.6%以后，叉车市场的需求会被拉动 The latest GDP forecasts for full year 2010 are for growth of 3.5% so it’s fairly certain that lift truck demand will sustain its current growth rate of about 30%, assuming that GDP stays on track. 关于2010年全年GDP的最新预测值为增加3.5%，因此，假如GDP保持正常增长的话，很肯定的是2010年叉车市场的需求将维持目前约30%的增长率 The consensus prediction for GDP growth in 2011 is a robust 3% so our members recent estimate of only 8% growth in lift truck demand is a cautious one, particularly if the capital investment tax deduction proposal passes into law. 对于2011年GDP普遍预测的共识为3%，因而，目前我们成员对叉车市场增长8%的估计是相对保守的，尤其是如果资本投资税收减免的方案获得通过后。 2.6% % Change in U.S. GDP美国GDP变化% 全行业零售数量 北美叉车行业增长% GDP增长（变化%） *预测/ITA的估计 **来源：卡特彼勒经济预测

4 ITA Retail Orders and Forecast ITA 零售订单及预测
56% 67% 64% Here is a more detailed look at the last few years’ orders and our members forecasts for 2010. 这里是更详细的近几年的订单情况以及我们成员对2010年预测的细节 The 3 bars on the right are all forecasts for 2010 but done at different times. 最右边的三个柱图都是对2010年市场的预测，但做出预测的时间不同 The bar on the right is the most recent forecast done at the end of last month. It is also the most optimistic of the forecasts done over the last several quarters, predicting full year orders of 120K. 最右边的柱图是上个月底做出的对于2010年的最新预测。这也是近几个季度当中对2010年做出的最乐观的估计，预计全年订单为12万台 Our members pessimism bottomed at the end of 2009 with a forecast of barely 100K. 在2009年底，当我们成员对市场极度悲观时，预测的台数仅仅为10万台 One of the more profound trends in our industry is also reflected here and that is the shift in the mix of industry orders to electrics from IC, moving from about 55% prior to 2006 to approaching 70% in 2009. 另外一个更明显的趋势是，在这里，叉车行业的订单还表现出从内燃叉车向电动叉车转化的趋势。2006年，电车的订单占55%，而到2009年时，电车的比例已经接近70% This shift is typical of recessionary periods but it has never been this pronounced and even with recovery underway, electric demand remains strong and is predicted to end the year at 64% of total orders. 这个转变虽然是经济萧条时期特有的反映，但这么明显的转变还是从未见过的，尤其现在市场已经开始复苏了，市场对电车依然表现出较高的需求，预计2010年全年电车将占64%的比重

5 ITA Retail Orders and Forecast ITA 零售订单及预测
56% 67% 63% As I said earlier, members forecasts for 2011 predict orders of 130K. 如同我之前提到的那样，成员预计2011年的订单数为13万台 Electric orders remain strong in this forecast at 63% of the total. 仍然估计电车的订单保持较高的比重，63% It seems fairly certain that this trend to electrics has staying power not seen before due to heightened concerns with fossil fuel costs, ecology and related regulatory requirements and advances in technology that have electric trucks performing closer to IC’s. My personal opinion is that electrics will never again be less than 60% of total orders. 看起来，电动叉车将会保持前所未有的强势，得益于对高燃料成本的高度关切，环境及相关的法律规定的限制以及使电动叉车能表现出接近内燃叉车性能的先进的技术。我个人的观点是，电动叉车所占的比重将不会再低于60%

6 Forecast of Member Expectations 成员的预测
Factory Shipments 工厂发货 Field Inventory 实地盘存 Index; Measure of Members’ opinion 成员意见的计算方法 100 means 100% of members think the subject will increase. 100代表100%的成员认为会上升 -100 means 100% of members think the subject will decrease. -100代表100%的成员认为会下降 Surveyed both 2010 and 2011. 调查针对2010年以及2011年 Additional to quantitative forecasts, we also ask members to offer their opinions in a more qualitative way. 除了定量的预测，我们还要求董事会对未来提供定性的看法 Here is a brief history of their expectations for a few key aspects of our business shown as an index over the last several quarters. 这里是对于我们业务中的几个主要方面在过去几个季度中的历史表现数据 All of our members expect factory shipments to increase in 2010 and 2011, reflecting the optimism we saw in the orders forecasts. 与我们在订单预测中所做的乐观估计一样，我们所有的成员都预期在2010年和2011年工厂的发货会上升 Most of our members also now expect field or dealer inventory to increase but expectations for 2010 are not as high as 2011 and we were a slower to come to this conclusion. 我们大部分的成员现在也预期场地库存或者流通库存增加，但是对2010年的预计没有2011年那么高，我们比较慢得出这个结论 Tighter credit requirements for distributors is likely a factor here and meeting customers’ undiminished lead time expectations may be a new post recession challenge for manufacturers. 在这里，经销商紧缩的信贷尺度，以及迎合客户对交货期的期待，可能是制造业者在后经济衰退期所面临的新的挑战。

7 Forecast of Member Expectations 成员预测
Lead Times 交货期 Production Employees 生产工人 Index; Measure of Members’ opinion 成员意见的计算方法 100 means 100% of members think the subject will increase. 100代表100%的成员认为会上升 -100 means 100% of members think the subject will decrease. -100代表100%的成员认为会下降 Surveyed both 2010 and 2011. 调查针对2010年以及2011年 Most of our members likewise expect lead times and production employees to increase. 我们大多数的成员同时也预期交货期及生产工人将会增加 Clearly, the bubble is expected in 2010 though compared to The reasons for this are twofold; fairly sharply increasing demand in 2010 that is not expected to continue in 2011, at least not yet, and the retooling of supply chains that is occurring now that should be complete by 2011. 预计2010年会出现泡沫经济，而2011年这一情况将会改变，原因有两个：2010年急剧上升的需求在2011年不太可能持续，至少还没有开始。另外，目前出现的供应链重组情况到2011年将完成 All in all, I believe you can see that we are optimistic about the future. 总的来说，我相信各位已经发现我们对将来的市场是持乐观态度的

8 Future Technology 未来技术
Let’s talk now about future technology in our industry. 现在让我们来谈谈我们行业未来的技术 Every year our Suppliers Committee develops a set of questions aimed at revealing business trends in our industry. Members of the board are asked to poll their companies and the results are quantified. The complete survey is analyzed and presented at a panel session at the annual meeting in October. 每一年，我们的供应商委员会为了展示行业的发展趋势提出一系列的问题，要求董事会的成员对他们的公司进行调查，并且量化结果。完整的调查将在10月份年度的小组会议上分析和展示。 All 20 company members of ITA responded to the Business Trends Survey so we are getting thoughts from the leaders of our industry in North America. 所有工业车辆协会的20个公司成员对市场趋势调查作出回应，因此我们能从北美行业的领先者那获得最好的理念。 Here’s a look at a few of the questions and the results from the Business Trends Survey on future technology.  下面是其中一些你们应该感兴趣的问题以及未来技术的发展趋势的结果

9 Future Technologies 未来的技术
In 2015, what percentage of class shipments will be powered by fuel cells? 在2015年，有多少百分比的前三大类发货叉车会使用燃料电池？ These questions are about the focal point of technology development in our industry; motive power. 这些是叉车行业技术发展的焦点问题，动力 In response to the question, “In 2015, what percentage of class shipments will be powered by fuel cells”, our members gave these answers for; 针对这个问题，我们的成员分别就第一类、第二类和第三类叉车提供了答案。 - Class 1 Class 2 and Class 3 I found the high expectation for Class 3 interesting. 我发现问卷结果对第三类叉车有较高的预期 Overall, a strong belief that fuel cells will be in high use in just a few years. 总体来说，燃料电池在接下来的几年将被大量的使用 少于等于10% 大于等于51%

10 Future Technologies 未来的技术
When do you believe a fuel cell system will show a positive lifecycle cost versus lead acid battery and charger systems? 你认为什么时候燃料电池系统将比铅酸电池系统具有更低的周期使用成本？ Only half our members believe that fuel cell systems will be financially viable within the next 5 years. Most believe that advancement will be highly dependent on the existence and influence of government regulations and/or subsidies, which are hard to predict. 只有一半的成员会相信燃料电池系统能够在未来五年中是经济上可行的。大部分人相信燃料电池系统的应用进展更多地依赖于政府规定和/或者补贴的存在与影响，而这是非常难以预测的。 目前 年内 年内 超过5年

11 Future Technology On a scale of 1 to 10, how important are the following factors regarding fuel cell technology? 在1到10范围内，以下因素对燃料电池技术的重要性有多少？ 初始成本 寿命周期成本 However, our members believe that the development of infrastructure to support the delivery and distribution of hydrogen fuel is the most critical element of moving this technology into the alternative power mainstream, compared to initial cost, lifecycle cost or customer acceptance. 相比较初始成本、寿命周期成本以及客户验收，我们的成员认为发展支持氢燃料配送的基础设施建设是推动这项技术成为可选的主流动力的关键要素 氢燃料的配送 客户验收

12 Future Technologies 未来技术
By 2015, what percentage of trucks will utilize hybrid systems? 到2015年，多少比重的第四、五类车辆会使用混合动力系统 第四类 第五类 Here members are asked about hybrids. What percentage of trucks will utilize these systems by 2015. 在这里，成员们被调查关于混合动力系统的趋势。到2015年，使用混合动力系统的将占多少比重 These are the responses for Class 4 and… 这些结果是针对第四类 Here are the responses for Class 5. 而这些回答是针对第五类的 Understandably, I think, there is a slightly higher expectation that hybrid technology will be more prevalent in Class 4 indoor trucks than Class 5 trucks, which in North America are used almost exclusively outdoors. 从图中看来，我认为，混合动力系统在第四类室内叉车的应用情况将比第五类有较高一些的预期，而第五类叉车在美国几乎全部在户外使用

13 Future Technology On a scale of 1 to 10, what is the likelihood of the following types of hybrid-powered forklifts being available for sale by 2015? 在1到10范围内，以下种类的混合动力叉车在2015年销售的可能性有多少 油电混合动力 By far, our members believe that IC/Electric hybrids will be more prevalent than IC/hydraulic pressure energy hybrids. 目前，我们的成员认为油电混合动力将会比液压混合动力更为普遍 液压混合动力

14 Future Technologies 未来技术
How will market demand for specific types of IC-powered forklifts change by 2015? 2015年市场对特种类别的内燃叉车的需求变化 Finally, our members were asked, “How will market demand for specific types of IC-powered forklifts change by 2015?” 最后，我们的成员被问到“到2015年，特种类别的内燃叉车的市场需求将会怎样” First, diesel… with the decrease and increase camps fairly evenly divided. Everyone expects a change but we don’t agree on its direction. 首先，对内燃叉车的市场预测差不多增加和降低的各占一半。每个人都预计会有变化，但是对于它未来的发展趋势没有达成一致的看法。 Next, gasoline with a marked expectation to decrease (it’s already fairly small in North America). 接下来，对汽油叉车市场预测是一个明显的缩减趋势（在北美市场，它的比重已经非常小了） Interest in CNG makes a modest comeback. 对压缩天然气的兴趣将引发些微的反弹 LPG increases more than it decreases and finally… 认为液化石油气会上升的比下降的多，最后 Expectations for ethanol/methanol based fuels by 2015 is not high. 对乙醇、甲醇为基低的燃料在2015年的预期并不是很高 Summarizing responses to this question, I think we would say that our members think the real motive power story for the next 5 years is in fuel cell and hybrid technology. 总结这一个问题，我们成员预期接下来的5年，主导的动力是燃料电池和混合动力系统 内燃叉车 汽油叉车 压缩天然气 液化石油气 乙醇/甲醇 51% 减少 减少 减少 不变 增加 增加 增加 增加 或更少 % % 10%或更少 %或以内 11-25% % 51%或以上

15 Forklifts of 2025 Electric trucks 90% of sales. Few utilize conventional batteries. 电动叉车将占90%的销售。部分使用常规电池。 Fuel cells the primary power source. Ethanol and other liquid bio-fuels predominate. 燃料电池成为主要的能源，乙醇和其他液体的生物燃料占支配地位。 Lead-acid batteries obsolete. Replaced by lithium-ion and newer technologies. 不再使用铅蓄电池。锂离子和新技术将替代铅蓄电池 For IC trucks, hybrids replace conventional engine-powered trucks. 就内燃叉车，混合动力叉车替代传统引擎动能叉车。 Commercially-available LP fuel (as we know it today) will not be usable. 目前我们所知的市售液化燃料将不被使用 Ethanol/liquid gasoline prevalent for spark-ignited trucks. CNG may be back. 靠火花塞点火式叉车将普遍使用乙醇/液体汽油。也可能再度使用压缩天然气。 Electric trucks will represent 90% of all industrial truck sales. Few will utilize conventional batteries. 电动叉车将占90%的工业车辆销售市场。部分将使用常规电池。 Fuel cells will be the primary power source, but not necessarily hydrogen-powered. Ethanol and other liquid bio-fuels will predominate. 燃料电池将成为主要的能源，但不一定需要时氢动力电池。将以乙醇和其他液体的生物燃料为主。 Lead-acid batteries will be obsolete due to ecological concerns. Lithium-ion and newer technologies will have replaced them at comparable cost. 出于生态环境的考虑，铅蓄电池已不再使用。锂离子和新技术将替代铅蓄电池，且费用适中。 For remaining IC trucks, which will be primarily large outdoor trucks, hybrids will replace conventional engine-powered trucks. 为保留内燃叉车，主要是针对大型户外叉车，将使用混合动能叉车替代传统引擎动能叉车。 EPA emissions requirements will be so stringent that commercially-available LP fuel, as we know it today, will not be usable (there are already quality issues with contamination). 环境保护局对排放的要求更加严格，因此我们目前已知的市面上有售的液化燃料将不再使用。(目前已存在污染的质量问题). Ethanol/liquid gasoline will be prevalent for the remaining spark-ignited trucks. CNG might make a comeback if costs are appropriately lower than gasoline. 剩下的靠火花塞点火式叉车将普遍使用乙醇/液体汽油。如果压缩天然气的费用低于汽油，也可能再度使用压缩天然气。

16 Forklifts of 2025 Diesel engines will become virtually obsolete in lower lift capacities. Only bio-diesel remains. 在低提升吨位的叉车中，柴油引擎不再使用。只有生物柴油还将保留 Electric ball screw actuators replace hydraulic systems. Electric trucks hydraulics-free. 电动滚珠螺杆执行器将取代液压系统。电动叉车将不再使用液压技术。 Warehouses self-contained/centrally controlled by computers. Fully automated and guided forklifts are 50% industry sales. 仓库操作配套齐全，由计算机进行中央控制。50%的叉车将实现完全自动化驾驶，无需人力操纵。 Human-operated trucks eliminate risk for the operators. Protected in a cocoon-like environment. 人力操作的叉车去除司机操作时的风险。操作者将被保护在蚕茧状的环境里。 Operator stations reversible to always face direction of travel. 操作台可逆转，使操作者能始终面朝行进方向。 Operator controls finger/thumb operated like video game controllers. 就如同操作电子游戏，叉车操作者将通过手指进行控制， Due to the high cost of reducing diesel particulates and hydrocarbons, diesel engines will have become virtually obsolete in lower lift capacity materials handling equipment. Only bio-diesel might remain. 由于减少柴油微粒和碳氢化合物的费用很高，事实上在低提升吨位的叉车中，柴油引擎将不再使用。只有生物柴油还将保留。 Pressurized hydraulic systems will be replaced by electric ball screw actuators. Electric trucks will be hydraulics-free. 加压式液压系统将会被电动滚珠螺杆执行器所取代。电动叉车将不再使用液压技术。 Warehouse operations will be self-contained and centrally controlled by computers. Consequently, 50% of forklift trucks sold will be fully automated and guided, without operators. 仓库操作配套齐全，由计算机进行中央控制。因此，50%的叉车将实现完全自动化驾驶，无需人力操纵。 Human-operated trucks will have eliminated risk for the operators. They will be protected in a cocoon-like environment. 人力操作的叉车将去除司机操作时的风险。操作者将被保护在蚕茧状的环境里。 Operator stations will be fully reversible so as to always face the direction of travel. 操作台可完全倒转，因此操作者可始终面朝行进方向。 Steering wheels and operating levers will have disappeared. Operator controls will be finger and thumb operated, like video game controllers. 方向盘和操纵杆将被隐藏。操作者将通过手指进行控制，就如同操作电子游戏。

17 Jeff Rufener (MCFA), ITA
Presidents’ Forum Jeff Rufener (MCFA), ITA 30 October 2010 Istanbul, Turkey