An Opportunity for the Future

Presentation on theme: "An Opportunity for the Future"— Presentation transcript:

1 An Opportunity for the Future
A Legacy from the Past An Opportunity for the Future Renzo Isler Generali Group Senior Consultant for China

2 过往的遗产：未来的机遇 连佐·以司乐尔 意大利忠利集团 中国问题资深专家

3 FOUR KEY THEMES AFFECTING COUNTRIES AND SYSTEMS
The conundrum of the demographic curve and living expectancy The necessity to run a three-tier pension system; the complementarity between public and private The deficits of country and/or corporate pension funds; defined benefit or defined contribution? Debate between equality and inequality The balance between lending and borrowing

4 影响各国、各体系的四大关键问题 人口曲线和预期寿命谜题 必须构建三支柱养老体系；公、私支柱互补问题 国家或企业养老基金赤字；待遇固定型还是缴费固定型？平等与不 平等问题的讨论 借出与借入之间的平衡

5 The conundrum of the demographic curve and living expectancy
United States European Union China … and unemployment projections don’t help

6 人口曲线和预期寿命谜题 美国 欧盟 中国 … 失业预测并无用处

7 The European Situation

8 欧盟状况

9 Biomedical Systems HISTORICAL DATA CONCLUSION: My daughters after discovering the amount of their future retirement state plan 2 oktober 2008 Yesterday workers: 70% to 80% of the last salary Today: 35% to 45% of the last salary Tomorrow: 30% of the last salary (estimation) Ben Vonck 9

10 由历史数据得出的结论: 我的女儿在发现她的国家退休金计划的未来金额之后，是这样的
Biomedical Systems 由历史数据得出的结论: 我的女儿在发现她的国家退休金计划的未来金额之后，是这样的 2 oktober 2008 昨天: 70% - 80% 最后工资 今天: 35% - 45% 最后工资 明天: 30% 最后工资(估计) Ben Vonck 10

11 Biomedical Systems HISTORICAL DATA CONCLUSION: On a positive note ………. the number of divorces in Europe should decrease ! 2 oktober 2008 Ben Vonck 11

12 由历史数据得出的结论: 好消息就是….欧洲离婚率会下降！
Biomedical Systems 由历史数据得出的结论: 好消息就是….欧洲离婚率会下降！ 2 oktober 2008 不… 是为了 退休金！ 为了孩子，咱是不是得在一起? Ben Vonck 12

13 The necessity to run a three-tier pension system; the complementarity between public and private
from when? to when? Age 25 to 60 – residual 25 Age 25 to 65 – residual 22 how much to contribute? +- target % * yrs benefits yrs contribution

14 必须构建三支柱养老体 系；公、私支柱互补问 题
收入替代比 理想的目标金额是相当于最后5年工资的80% 必须构建三支柱养老体 系；公、私支柱互补问 题 第二支柱-企业 25% 从何时? 到何时? 25岁-60岁 – 剩25年 25岁-65岁 – 剩22年 缴多少费? +- 目标 % * 领取年限 缴费年限 第一支柱-国家强制 40% 第三支柱-个人 15%

15 The deficits of country and/or corporate pension funds; defined benefit (DB) or defined contribution (DC)? Debate between equality and inequality Pre-defined Who is running the risk?

16 国家或企业养老基金 赤字；待遇固定型还 是缴费固定型？平等 与不平等问题的讨论
国家或企业养老基金 赤字；待遇固定型还 是缴费固定型？平等 与不平等问题的讨论 事定金额 领出福利 缴费 谁在面对风险? 缴费 福利1 福利2 福利3

17 The world top 20 funds invested approximately 42% in equities
Assets under management (AUM) of world’s 300 largest pension funds totalled US$19.4 trillion in 2017, i.e. 43.2% of world total at US$41 trillion. These pension funds still predominantly DB (65.5% by total assets). DC at 23% and Reserve Funds (like China’s NSSF) at 11.5%. The world top 20 funds invested approximately 42% in equities 37% in fixed income securities 21% in alternatives and cash (U.S. higher equity; Asia-Pacific higher fixed-income) Source: WTW

18 世界养老基金300强所管理基金(AUM)2017年总额达到19. 4 万亿美元, 即全球总额（41万亿美元）的43. 2%
世界养老基金300强所管理基金(AUM)2017年总额达到19.4 万亿美元, 即全球总额（41万亿美元）的43.2%. 这些养老基金仍以DB型为主（总资产的65.5%），DC 型占23%，此外是储备基金 (如中国的全国社保基金) ，占 11.5%. 世界前20家基金投资接近： 42% 投于股票 37% 投于固定收入证券 21% 投于另类资产和现金类 (美国为股票更多; 亚太为固定收入更多) Source: WTW

19 The balance between lending and borrowing
Top-7 Countries have pension assets of US$37.8 trn (2017) – 84% of World total Top-7 Countries: AUS, CAN, CHF, GBR, HOL, JAP, USA 20-Year average increase (CGAR) of Assets at 6.2% 91% assets invested in just seven markets Larger Funds need larger investment options #1 priority (for fund owners): maximize return on investments Secondary (or primary?) objective: stimulate economic and social growth of country of origin Source: WTW 19

20 借出与借入之间的平衡 大型基金需要大型投资选项 第一优先目标（对于基金所有人而言）：实现投资回报最大化
世界前7国家拥有养老金$37.8 万亿美元 (2017) – 世界总额的84% 前7国家: 澳, 家, 瑞士, 英, 荷, 日, 美 20年平均资产增长 (CGAR) 为6.2% 91% 的资产仅投在7大市场 大型基金需要大型投资选项 第一优先目标（对于基金所有人而言）：实现投资回报最大化 第二（也可能第一）目标：刺激母国经济社会增长 Source: WTW 20

21 Asset Management Risk Management Pension Governance
(e.g. Pension Funds) LENDERS e.g. Corporates (bonds / equities), States, Developers, P.E. & V.C., etc… BORROWERS Asset Management Risk Management Pension Governance

22 (即，养老基金) 借出方 资产管理 风险管理 养老金治理 即，企业（债券/股票），国家，开发商，私股，风投等 借入方

23 A legacy from the past – An opportunity for the future
A three-tier system is the most rational and efficient system; the first-tier public, the other two private or hybrid; Defined contribution should be preferred over defined benefit; Accumulation and distribution phases must be clearly ruled in terms of costs and services; Investments must be geared to be a long-term “lung” for the enhancement in the living quality standards of the society which generates the assets; Asset allocation and absorption must be in equilibrium; Asset Management, Risk Management and Pension Governance must be properly ruled and enacted.

24 过往的遗产– 未来的机遇 三支柱体系是最理性、最有效率的体制；第一支柱是公共制度，其他两个支柱为私有或混合制度； 缴费固定型应当比待遇固定型更受青睐； 积累和分配阶段的事宜应当在成本和服务条款中明确规定； 基金投资应当成为一种“舒活肺”，用以提高资产来源社会的生活质量标准； 资产配置和吸收应当保持平衡； 资产管理、风险管理和养老金治理应当被合理规范、执行。