中国商业银行的趋势与战略 王君 2008年12月13日 财经杂志年会金融峰会（上）

SCBs financial performance before 1997 Non-Performing Loans Loan Loss Reserve Ratio n.a. n.a. Leverage Ratio ROE

SCBs financial performance before 1997 Non-Performing Loans Loan Loss Reserve Ratio n.a. n.a. Leverage Ratio ROE

Loan Loss Reserve Ratio …but their financial performance remained poor up to 2002 Non-performing loans Loan Loss Reserve Ratio Tier 1 Ratio ROE

Multiple stakeholders…but none was held accountable State Council FWC PBC MOF STA SCB Management SAFE CBRC Branches Branches NDRC SAO Local governments

SCBs’ size and equity expanded Assets Loans Deposits Equity

Loan Loss Reserve Ratio Assets quality improved… NPLs Loan Loss Reserve Ratio Tier 1 Ratio Leverage Ratio

Non-Interest Income/Total Revenue Earnings capacity increased Non-Interest Income/Total Revenue Cost To Income Ratio ROA ROE

Benchmarking with peers (1), 2007 Asset Equity

Loan Loss Reserve Ratio Benchmarking with peers (2), 2007 NPLs Loan Loss Reserve Ratio

Benchmarking with peers (3), 2007 Tier 1 Ratio Leverage Ratio n.a.

Loans To Deposits Ratio Benchmarking with peers (4), 2007 Loans To Deposits Ratio Cost To Income Ratio

Non-interest Income/total Revenue Benchmarking with peers (5), 2007 Net Interest Margin Non-interest Income/total Revenue

Benchmarking with peers (6), 2007 ROA ROE

Credit rating by Moody’s, 2008 Bank Deposits LT Short term LT Debt Senior Financial Strength RBS Group P-1 Aa2 HSBC A-1 Deutsche Bank Aa1 B Credit Agricole Citigroup Aa3 Barclays Bank CCB A1 D-1 ICBC D- BOC ABC E

Credit rating by Standard and Poor, 2008 Foreign Currency LT Foreign Currency ST Local Currency LT RBS Group A+ A-1 HSBC AA- A-1+ Deutsche Bank Credit Agricole Citigroup Barclays Bank AA CCB A A-2 A- ICBC BOC ABC

各项指标都超过了监管当局的要求 Indicator Item BOC ICBC CCB Profitability ROA>0.6% 1.09 1.01 1.15 ROE>11%, 13% in the future 14.22 16.15 19.50 Cost and Asset Quality Cost/income Ratio（35%~45%） 38.07 34.48 35.92 NPLs<5% 3.12 2.74 2.60 Capital Adequacy and Prudential Indicators CAR>8% 13.34 13.09 12 .58 Single largest exposure <10% of capital 3.40 3.10 4.70 NPL provision coverage 60%,100% in five years 108.18 103.50 104.41

特征与战略同质化 股权结构与公司治理 市场份额（大城市、大客户、总资产） 范围扩张（混业经营） 海外并购与网点设立 产品开发（期限短期化、利率下浮、理财产品） 政治化（对地方政府的依赖：银政协议） 非价格竞争领域（机场贵宾室）

4. 微小企业贷款需求远远没有得到满足 2007年末获得正规金融机构贷款的企业数占总法人单位比重 2007年末获得正规金融机构贷款的企业数占法人单位加上个体工商户总单位的比重 资料来源：根据中国银行业农村金融服务分布图集2007计算

这些都导致银行的顺周期特征 政策导向 信贷分析与管理能力 企业整体风险分析与监控 行业与产业链 对担保的过度依赖

并且使资金无法流向那些真正需要的行业、企业和个人 全国县以下商业银行贷存比仅有56％ 获得贷款的企业不到法人单位数目的40％ 如果加上个体工商户这个比例低于10％

The government remains the majority shareholder in the restructured SCBs BOC ICBC CCB First large shareholders Huijin 67.49% MOF 35.33% Huijin 35.33% Huijin 61.48% Second large shareholders RBS Group 8.25% Jianyin 9.21% Third large shareholders Asia Financial Holdings 4.64% National Council for Social Security Fund 5.44% Bank of America 8.52% Fourth large shareholders National Council for Social Security Fund 4.46% Goldman Sachs 4.93% Asia Financial Holdings 5.88% Fifth large shareholders UBS AG 1.33% Allianz 1.93% Baosteel or State Grid 1.34%

新的竞争格局会是什么样？ 县域金融市场 微小贷款 批发或零售 产品