Critical issues with the Chinese pension system 中国养老保险制度的重要议题 北京，2018年9月19日 JV Gruat, Resident Expert, Component 1 让-维克多·圭亚, 第一部分常驻欧方专家

Contents 内容 1. Introduction 简介 2. Scheme attractiveness 养老保险制度的参保吸引力 3. System Fragmentation 养老保险制度碎片化问题 4. Relatively low level of protection 保障层次较低 5. Redistributive effect 再分配机制 6. The challenge of ageing 应对老龄化挑战 7. Economic Affordability 养老金的可支付性 8. Conclusion 结论

Introduction -1 简介 - 1 Very fast and remarkable increase in personal coverage 社保覆盖人数快速显著增长

Introduction - 2 简介 - 2 A value of pension benefits far from negligible (Urban workers) 养老金待遇的显著增长 (城镇职工养老保险) Item 统计项目 2000 2005 2010 2015 Advanced economies 2015 发达国家 2015 年数据 Nb of pension recipients, million 养老金领取人数（百万） 32 44 63 92   Pensions as % of GDP 养老金资产占GDP比重 2.10 2.16 2.61 4.07 8.5 Pensions as % of average wage 养老金与社会平均工资标准相比 71 50 47 49 57 Economic replacement rate, pensions 养老金替代率 58 46 41 33

However, some difficulties: 目前的主要问题包括: Introduction - 3 简介 - 3 However, some difficulties: 目前的主要问题包括: a marginally decreasing attractiveness of the main social insurance scheme; 社会保险制度参保吸引力有所下降； system fragmentation; 制度碎片化； a still low level of protection; 保障层次仍然较低； a quite limited redistributive effect; 收入再分配机制成效有限； the threat from a rapidly ageing population; 快速的人口老龄化带来的挑战； a (sometimes) questioned economic affordability 养老金的可支付性无法保证

Decreasing attractiveness - 1 参保吸引力降低 - 1 Income for pension schemes grows less then wage bill 养老金增速明显低于工资增速

Decreasing attractiveness - 2 参保吸引力降低 - 2 Reasons for decreasing attractiveness: 参保吸引力降低的原因： no strong push from workers to have employers contribute fully; 职工无力敦促所在单位按实际收入缴纳养老金； a contribution rate of 28% (20% from employer, 8 from employee) being considered as a heavy burden for private sector; 28%的缴费率（20%由企业负担、8%由职工负担）对民营企业而言负担过重； the fragmentation of the scheme which makes it unattractive for a number of mobile workers; 制度碎片化导致大量流动劳动力无意参保； uncertainties concerning the very nature of the scheme, which does not add to overall trust in the fund’s sustainability; 制度本身存在不确定性，对制度的可持续性没有建立起广泛的信心； a decreasing level of relative pension benefits expressed in terms of replacement of past income 养老金待遇相对替代率水平不断降低

System fragmentation 制度碎片化 The Chinese pension scheme for Urban employees was conceptualised, tested and implemented at a time when economic and social mobility were not yet the rule for most of the active population. 中国城镇职工养老保险制度确立之时，劳动力市场尚不存在大规模的人口流动 The rule is that pooling should be established with the Provinces, there are still a considerable number of instances where, within nationally prevailing legislation and rules, some local parameters and rules are kept 尽管养老金按规定为省级统筹，在国家法律法规允许的范围内，缴存政策仍然存在一些地方差异 Binding a substantial portion of the pension to local conditions is a measure protecting best the interests of the weakest segments of the contributing population. However, when differences are very important across regions – and sometimes even within region – in terms of standards of living including salary levels, the question arises of how to cope with such differences within the pension scheme. 养老金应当首先保障最弱势的参保人群，这一原则也成为养老金缴存地方差异的主要原因——由于地区间（有时甚至是地区内）收入水平的巨大差异，养老金缴存参数也会随之发生变化 Vesting is difficult within Urban workers’ scheme(s), even more between Resident (urban or rural) and Workers’ schemes 城镇职工养老保险的跨省转移接续尚有难度，城乡居民养老金与城镇职工养老金之间的转移接续更为困难

Relatively low level of protection - 1 保障层次较低 - 1 Rural and Urban resident pensions 城乡居民养老保险 Year 年份 Number of participants (million) 参保人数（百万） Number of beneficiaries 养老金领取人数（百万） Average yearly contribution one person (Yuan) 年均个人缴费金额（元） Average pension benefit per month (Yuan) 按月养老金平均领取金额（元） 2008 56 5 -- 2009 87 15 2010 103 28 300 60 2011 326 85 172 58 2012 460 121 168 73 2013 474 128 177 81 2014 501 147 186 89 2015 505 148 196 119 2016 508 153 206 117

Relatively low level of protection - 2 保障层次较低 - 2 Decreasing replacement rates (Urban workers) 不断降低的替代率（城镇职工养老保险）

Relatively low level of protection - 3 保障层次较低 - 3 Still marginal entreprise annuity scheme 企业年金制度发展缓慢

Redistributive effect - 1 再分配效果 - 1 Poverty head count (WB estimates 3.10 $/d PPP) 贫困人口数量（世界银行标准：3.1美元/日）

Redistributive effect - 2 再分配效果 - 2 Redistributive effect through social security 社会保险的再分配效应

The challenge of ageing - 1 人口老龄化带来的挑战 - 1

The challenge of ageing - 2 人口老龄化带来的挑战 - 2 Estimate of the cost of population ageing, 2015 – 2050 人口老龄化所需的社会成本，2015 - 2050

Economic Affordability - 1 养老金可支付性 - 1 Anticipation of GDP annual growth rate (2011-2050) GDP年增长率预期（2011-2050）

Economic Affordability - 2 养老金可支付性 - 2 Revenue & Expenditure Urban workers’ pension scheme 2015-2050 城镇职工养老保险收缴总额及支出总额 2015-2050

Economic Affordability - 3 养老金可支付性 - 3 Possible remedial measures 可能的改善措施 progress towards national pooling 逐步建立全国统筹机制 improve contributions collection 改进缴费机制 identification of alternative sources of financing 发展补充保障制度 adjustment of pension formula to react to demographic factors 调整养老金待遇计算公式 review of qualifying conditions towards incentives to longer contributory careers 调整用于鼓励更长缴费年限的标准 improvement in the scope of personal coverage 提高个人参保率 promote the implementation of second and third pillar schemes 鼓励第二及第三支柱的发展

Economic Affordability - 4 养老金可支付性 - 4 Factors of attractiveness 参保吸引力的影响因素 clearly marking the difference between solidarity and equity components 普惠性与公平性要素之间的平衡 improving the rate of return on amounts invested in individual accounts 提高个人账户的收益率 establishing a better linkage between contributions and benefits 更为合理的缴费与待遇之间的关系 providing for bridges between the various schemes and for easier and full vesting among pooling areas 建立更完善的转移接续机制 linking contributing to pension schemes with access to more immediate benefits related to health, disability, survivors, family support etc. 在医疗、残障照料、家庭支持等方面给予参保人更直接的待遇

Conclusion 结论 “十三五”规划与社保相关的内容 - 实施全民参保计划 实现社会保险全覆盖 - 提高参保吸引力 “十三五”规划相关内容 应对问题 - 实施全民参保计划 实现社会保险全覆盖 社保制度碎片化 - 提高参保吸引力 提高目标群体参保率（农民工、灵活就业） 加强公共服务设施及信息平台建设 扩展社保卡的应用 参保吸引力  - 保证社保制度的可持续性 保证社保基金的收支平衡 完善缴费机制 明确政府、企业、个人的相关缴费责任 降低企业缴费负担 划拨国有资产，补充社保基金，扩充投资渠道，加强风险管理 社保资金的可支付性 - 提高养老金待遇水平 提高基本养老保险待遇水平（社会统筹及个人账户） 发展多层次养老保险体系 实现基本养老金全国统筹 提高个人账户利率，建立参与基本养老保险的奖惩机制，及时调整基本养老保险待遇 保障层次较低 - 扩大覆盖率 加快个人收税递延型商业养老保险试点 建立失业保险、工伤保险弹性费率制度 社保的转移接续 社保的再分配效应  - 人口老龄化 全面“二孩”政策 提高老龄人口就业参与率 延迟退休政策 应对人口老龄化

Conclusion 结论 Social insurance commitments in the XIIIth Five-year Plan 2016-2020 XIIITH FIVE YEAR PLAN COMMITMENTS CORRESPONDING CHALLENGES Ensure complete coverage Universal and effective coverage SYSTEM FRAGMENTATION Make the system more attractive Target particular groups (migrant workers, flexible employment) Strengthen development of public service facilities and information platform Take initiatives concerning use of social security cards SYSTEM ATTRACTIVENESS   Guarantee sustainability Ensure actuarial balance Perfect funding mechanisms Clearly establish respective responsibilities of Government, entreprises, individuals Reduce insurance premium for entreprises Use portion of state assets to replenish social security funds, expand channels for investment, strengthen risk management ECONOMIC AFFORDABILITY Improve pension benefit levels Enhance basic old-age insurance (social pooling and individual accounts) Establish multi-layer old-age insurance system Place social pooling under unified management Improve individual accounts system, establish incentive/restraints on basic pensions, regularly adjust basic pensions LOW LEVEL OF PROTECTION Broaden scope of coverage Launch pension schemes that allow for deferred payment of individual income tax Better use Unemployment insurance, Work injury insurance, establish flexible contributions Make transferability easier REDISTRIBUTIVE EFFECT Population ageing (chapter 65) Support two-children policy Facilitate employability of elder workers Gradually increase retirement age THE CHALLENGE OF AGEING “十三五”规划相关内容 应对问题 - 实施全民参保计划 实现社会保险全覆盖 社保制度碎片化 - 提高参保吸引力 提高目标群体参保率（农民工、灵活就业） 加强公共服务设施及信息平台建设 扩展社保卡的应用 参保吸引力  - 保证社保制度的可持续性 保证社保基金的收支平衡 完善缴费机制 明确政府、企业、个人的相关缴费责任 降低企业缴费负担 划拨国有资产，补充社保基金，扩充投资渠道，加强风险管理 社保资金的可支付性 - 提高养老金待遇水平 提高基本养老保险待遇水平（社会统筹及个人账户） 发展多层次养老保险体系 实现基本养老金全国统筹 提高个人账户利率，建立参与基本养老保险的奖惩机制，及时调整基本养老保险待遇 保障层次较低 - 扩大覆盖率 加快个人收税递延型商业养老保险试点 建立失业保险、工伤保险弹性费率制度 社保的转移接续 社保的再分配效应  - 人口老龄化 全面“二孩”政策 提高老龄人口就业参与率 延迟退休政策 应对人口老龄化

谢谢 ！