中国的贫困监测与评价:主要的问题和努力 China’s Poverty M&E: Key Issues and Improvement Prof. Dr. Li Xiaoyun Dean,College of Humanities and Development, China Agricultural University Contact: Tel: 0086-10-62733094 Fax:0086-10-62731027 E-mail:xiaoyun@cau.edu.cn

中国贫困监测与评价的现状以及问题 Current Status and Key Issues of China’s Poverty M&E Types of Poverty M&E in China中国贫困监测的类型 China Poverty Monitoring (NSB) 国家贫困监测 (国家统计局) Poverty monitoring (LGOP) 国务院扶贫办扶贫监测体系 National Poverty Reduction Fund Management Monitoring Information System (MOF) 财政部扶贫资金管理监测信息系统 Provincial Poverty Monitoring System (five provinces) 省级扶贫监测体系 International poverty reduction project M&E (WB) 国际项目监测体系

中国贫困监测与评价的现状以及问题 Current Status and Key Issues of China’s Poverty M&E China Poverty Monitoring (NSB) 国家贫困监测 (国家统计局) Scale: 68,000 households in 31 provinces since year 2000; 自2002年起，31个省，68,000农户，全国农村住户抽样调查 Contents: poverty incidence, food consumption, income and expenditure, asset and infrastructure, children’s education and social equality 内容包括：贫困发生率、食物消费、收入和支出、资产和基础设施、儿童教育和社会平等 Monitoring on Key Poverty Working Counties 贫困监测抽样调查 Scale: 592 counties 范围：592个扶贫工作重点县 Contents: poverty incidence, economic development, infrastructure, social development, gender, accountability 内容包括：贫困发生率、经济发展、基础设施、社会发展、性别、可信度

中国贫困监测与评价的现状以及问题 Current Status and Key Issues of China’s Poverty M&E Poverty Reduction M&E (LGOP)国务院扶贫办对整村推进的监测与评价 Household survey: 592 counties, one village in each county, based on the data of 592 villages, assess the impact of village-based poverty reduction 农户调查：从592个扶贫工作重点县各抽1个村，借此评价全国整村推进的效果 County and village data collection: all key working counties and key villages only for fund use tracking, which links with MOF system; 县级和村级数据的收集：所有的重点县和重点村只记录资金的使用，与财政部的体系联系起来 Household Card: poor household record 农户记录卡：记录贫困户的信息

扶贫重点县农村贫困规模 Rural Poverty Scale in Key Working County 单位：万人 unit:ten thousand 年份 year 贫困人口absolute poor 低收入人口 Low income population 2001 1812 3865 2002 1752 3076 2003 1763 2946 2004 1613 2580

扶贫重点县农民纯收入 Farmer Net Income in Key Working County 单位：元 unit :yuan 指标 Indicator 2001 2002 2003 2004 农民人均纯收入 Per capita net income 1277 1305.2 1406.3 1585.3 其中:工资性收 Wage 382.2 435.5 451.4 489.4 家庭经营收入 Income from household business operation 848.3 796 865.1 997.2

劳动力文化程度构成 Education Level of Rural Labor % 指标 indicator 2002 203 2004 文盲、半文盲 Illiteracy,semiliterate 15.3 14.7 14 小学 Elementary school 37.8 36.8 35.8 初中 junior high school 38.8 40.3 41.4 高中 senior high school 6.4 6.3 6.7 中专 technical secondary school 1.4 1.5 大专及以上 Junior college and above 0.2 0.3 0.4

扶贫重点县农民按健康状况人口构成 Health of Farmers in the Key Working County % 指标 indicator 2002 203 2004 残疾 Disabled 1.4 1.2 患有大病 Serious illness 0.6 0.5 长期慢性病 Chronic diseases 2.1 1.7 1.6 体弱多病 Valetudinarianism 4.3 3.9 3.8 健康Healthy 92.4 93.5 93.8

扶贫重点县得到扶贫项目的村占全部村的比例 Proportion of villages receive the PA support to the total villages in the key working county 30 25 20 2002 15 2003 2004 10 5 现金扶持cash 实物扶持 in-kind support 技术扶持technical support

扶贫重点县重点村和非重点村扶贫项目覆盖情况Proportion of each kind PA support in the key working village and non-key working villages in the key working county

扶贫重点县农户参与扶贫项目情况 Proportion of household participation in PA support project

农村居民基尼系数变化 Changes of the Gini coefficient in rural residents

中国贫困监测与评价的现状以及问题 Current Status and Key Issues of China’s Poverty M&E Different agencies use different systems with different design and sample size 各部门扶贫监测或统计的设计和运行各自为政、多头进行 Different indicator system and different data set with contradictory results, lack of data sharing 不同系统和同一系统内部指标缺乏一致性，导致数据相互矛盾 Lack of systematic design from input to impact and systematic multi-dimensional design 缺乏系统的从投入到影响以及系统的多元贫困的设计 Lack of participatory M&E system and approach 缺乏参与式的监测与评价的体系和方法 Lack of systematic M&E below provincial level 在省以下没有数据支持 Lack of institutional and human resources，esp. technical M&E team 人力资源比较匮乏，尤其缺乏专业的评价队伍 Lack of utilization for improving program and planning 缺乏能够利用的、改善性项目和规划

中德江西监测项目 Sino-German Jiangxi Poverty Monitoring Project To be systematic 系统的 To be participatory 参与式的 To be multi-dimensional 多层面的 To be locally adaptive and decentralized 适用于当地情况，分权 User friendly 用户友好型 To be used for accountability measurement 用于可信度的测量 To be program based 以项目为基础

扶贫监测与评估指标体系 Poverty Alleviation M&E Indicator System Goal 目标 monitor and evaluate the Village Development Planning (VDP) under the Chinese 2001-2010 Poverty Alleviation Programme 监测并评估中国2001-2010扶贫规划下村级发展规划的执行情况

扶贫监测与评估指标体系 Poverty Alleviation M&E Indicator System Principle 原则 Specific & Sensitive 具体且敏感 Measurable 可衡量 Attainable & Applicable 数据可得到且可以应用 Relevancy 相关性 Time-bound & Traceable 有时限且可追踪

扶贫监测与评估指标体系 Poverty Alleviation M&E Indicator System The impact chain of the poverty reduction intervention 减贫干预的影响链 Input Output Outcome Impact 投入 产出 成果 影响

扶贫监测与评估指标体系 Poverty Alleviation M&E Indicator System multi-dimensional 多层面 Economic 经济类 Social 社会类 Political 政治类 Ecological 生态类

扶贫监测与评估指标体系 Poverty Alleviation M&E Indicator System Input Monitoring of PA funds (County level) 6 indicators 扶贫资金的投入监测 县级6个指标 (Sample Size: All 91 Counties which have Key Working Villages) 样本量：有重点村的91个县 Input Monitoring of PA funds (Village level) 4 indicators 扶贫资金的投入监测 村级4个指标 (Sample Size: All 1800 Key Working Villages) 样本量：1800个重点村 Note: 1 and 2 differ as 1 also includes projects and households in Non-Key Working Areas Implementation and Output Monitoring (Village level) 30 indicators 实施和产出监测 村级30个指标 (Sample Size: all 1800 KWV) 样本量：1800个重点村 Note: The data items in this section reflect actual questions in the LGOP/PADO Report form 注：这部分数据项反映了与国务院扶贫办/省扶贫办的报告形式 Outcome Monitoring (Sample Villages , Project’s HH questionnaire) 产出监测（样本村、项目农户问卷） Economic 7 indicators 经济类 7个 Social 7 indicators 社会类 7个 Political 5 indicators 政治类 5个 Ecological 3 indicators 环境类3个 Impact Monitoring (Sample Villages, Project’s HH questionnaire) 影响评估（样本村、项目农户问卷） Economic 5 indicators 经济类7个 Social 9 indicators 社会类9个 Political 7 indicators 政治类7个 Ecological 1 indicator 生态类1个 Participatory assessment: perception on poverty, satisfaction on the results 参与式评价：对贫困的认识，成果的满意 Others 其他 Effect of agricultural policies 农村政策的效果 Effect of natural disasters 自然灾害的效果

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