Component 2: Workshop 第二部分研讨会 2.3.2: The role of public finance in the Chinese social security system: policy recommendations 公共财政才中国社保制度中的角色：政策建议 ……………………………………. Dr. Mel Cousins, Social Protection Consultant 梅恪行 博士， 国际社保专家 2018年10月12日，北京 Beijing, October 12, 2018

Current subsidies for Chinese pensions system 当前中国养老金体系中的补助 Year Basic Pension Insurance for the Urban Employees (billion) 职工基本养老保险（十亿） Basic Pension Insurance for Urban and Rural Residents (billion) 居民基本养老保险（十亿） 年份 Revenue 收入 Expenditure 支出 Balance 结余 Subsidies 补助 2002 317 284 161 41 2003 368 312 221 53 2004 426 350 298 61 2005 509 404 65 2006 631 490 549 97 2007 783 596 739 116 2008 974 993 144 2009 1149 889 1253 165 2010 1342 1055 1537 195 45 20 42 22 2011 1689 1276 1950 227 111 60 123 69 2012 2000 1556 2394 265 183 115 230 124 2013 2268 1847 2827 302 205 135 301 142 2014 2531 2175 3180 355 231 157 384 164 2015 2934 2581 3534 472 285 212 459 216 2016 3506 3185 3858 651 293 215 539 220

Several provinces in or close to negative balance 多个省份结余为负数或接近负数 Provinces with expenses higher than revenue 开支大于收入的省份 Provinces close to negative balance 接近负结余的省份 Hebei 河北 Tianjin 天津 Neimenngu 内蒙古 Henan 河南 Liaoning 辽宁 Hunan 湖南 Jilin 吉林 Guangxi 广西 Heilongjiang 黑龙江 Sichuan 四川 Hubei 湖北 Shanxi 山西 Qinghai 青海 Gansu 甘肃

High level of current subsidies 当前补助水平高 Professor Dong: ‘The urban pension fund balance mainly came from the sum of fiscal subsidies over the years’. ‘financial subsidies have accounted for more than 70% of urban & rural residents pension income in the long term’ 董克用教授： “城镇职工养老金主要来自历年财政补助” “财政补助长期以来占到城乡居民养老保险的70%”

Subsidies likely to rise in the future 未来可能提高的补助 As we have seen China is facing the same demographic challenges as many other countries Rising ageing population and increased longevity Falling working population Without radical changes elsewhere, demand for public subsidies is likely to increase in coming decades 由于我们看到中国与很多其他国家一样，正面临人口挑战 老龄人口不断增加，寿命继续延长 工作人口下降 如果没有其他方面的根本转变，未来几十年，公共财政补助很可能需要提高

Approaches to subsidies 补助手段 Pre-subsidising social funds (targeted/general) Post-subsidising (targeted/deficit) Subsiding a minimum benefit/pension Funding transitional costs As in EU countries, main focus appears to be on post-subsidisation (including transition costs) 事前补助社会保险基金（专门/全部） 事后补助（专门/缺口） 补助最低福利/养老金 为转制成本筹资 与在欧盟国家一样，主要的关注点看起来都是在事后补助上（包括转 制成本）

Policy recommendation 1 政策建议1 Develop explicit estimates of cost of pension & social insurance schemes (national & provincial) EU Commission ‘Ageing Report’ (2018) looks at the long-run economic and fiscal implications of Europe's ageing population 对养老金和社会保险制度成本进行明确评估（全国+省级） 欧盟委员会的《老龄化报告（2018）》看到了欧洲老龄化对未来经济、财政的长期影响 https://ec.europa.eu/info/publications/economy-finance/2018-ageing-report-economic-and-budgetary-projections-eu-member-states-2016-2070_en

Policy recommendation 2 政策建议 2 Analyse full extent of existing subsidies What is the rationale for the existing subsidies? Are they achieving their objectives in the most cost-effective manner? Are there more cost-effective approaches for the future? 全面分析现有补助 现有补助的合理点在哪里？ 是否以成本效益最大化的方式达到了它们的目标？ 未来是否有更有成本效益更好的方式呢？

Lessons from international experience 国际经验 World Bank (2013) study on matching contributions found that directly subsidising contributions does lead to an increase in participation in pension schemes (e.g. subsidising contributions for Korean farmers) Studies of subsidisation of social insurance contributions from a labour market perspective - Nordic countries, Turkey, Korea - limited impact and often high deadweight Deficit funding - no evaluations 世界银行（2013）针对缴费匹配性的研究发现：直接补助缴费确实能够导致养老金制度参与率的提高（如，韩国补助农民缴费的案例） 从劳动力市场角度看社会保险缴费补助效果的研究——北欧国家、土耳其、韩国——影响有限，且通常负担沉重 对基金缺口进行补助——尚无评估

Advantages & disadvantages 优缺点 Work incentives 工作激励 Affordability & participation 支付能力&制度参与 Assisting to qualify for benefits 福利促进 Fiscal efficiency 财政效率 Pre-subsidisation (targeted) 事前补助（专） Can reduce disincentives for specific groups 可降低特殊群体积极性 Positive 积极 Positive depending on scheme design 积极，决定于制度设计 Post-subsidisation (deficit) 事后补助（缺） May reduce disincentives but only indirectly 会不直接降低积极性 Indirect (at best) 直接（最佳情况） No impact 无影响 Not likely to be efficient 不太倾向于有效 Post-subsidisation (targeted) 事后补助（专） May reduce disincentives but only indirectly 会不直接降低积极性 Direct & positive 直接、积极 Potentially positive depending on scheme design 可能积极，决定于制度设计 Post-subsidisation - Minimum pension 事后补助-最低养老金 No direct impact 无直接影响 Indirect 不直接 Depends on scheme design 决定于制度设计

Policy recommendation 3 政策建议 3 Ageing population will affect different provinces to a different extent Use funds and experiences (good/bad) from Chinese provinces to inform policy and support 老龄人口将以不同程度影响各省 利用中国各省资金和经验（好/不好）来形成政策与支持

Lessons from Chinese experience 中国经验 E.g. previous efforts to restore financial sustainability in North-eastern provinces Noteworthy that all 3 provinces are currently in negative balance 如之前为恢复东北地区财务可持续性所做的努力 注意：东北三省现在结余为负

Central adjustment fund 中央调剂基金 Guó fā (2018) 18 establishes a central adjustment fund to be funded by provinces Payments in based on provincial average wage and number of covered employees Payments out based on number of pensioners in the province Impact will need to be monitored Important to provide positive incentives to provinces 国发（2018）18号文件规定设立中央调剂基金，各省缴纳资金 根据各省平均工资和覆盖职工数量缴入 根据各省养老金领取人数发放调剂金 仍需静观后续效果 向各省提供积极激励很重要

Policy recommendation 4 政策建议 4 Financial management expertise is important Pension funds are large and expertise is required to manage both funds and deficits 财务管理专业知识很重要 养老基金规模大，需要有专业知识管理资金与缺口

Role of financial management expertise 财务管理专业知识的角色 Swedish Pensions Funds Mandate: to provide as high investment return as possible, while not taking undue risk OECD review: ‘high level of expertise and strong risk-management functions in place’ 瑞典养老基金 使命：尽可能提供高的投资回报，抵御不当风险 经合组织评论：“要有高水平的专业知识和强大的风险管理在其中运行”

Role of financial management expertise 财务管理专业知识的角色 France (which has the largest social security debt of any EU country) established a specific fund (the Social Security Debt Fund - CADES) to repay the accumulated deficits of the social security organizations. Funded by a specific tax (the Social Debt Repayment Contribution) and other sources of income including transfers from the public finances. Task of CADES is to pay down the accumulated debt by 2025 Transforming ongoing short-term debt into longer-term debt and adopting a phased plan for paying off this debt by 2025 法国（欧盟中社保负债最大的国家）建立了专项基金（社保在乎基金-CADES），负责解决社保机构的累计赤字 通过专门税种（社保债务补偿缴费）即其他收入来源进行筹资，包括财政转移支付 CADES的任务是到2025年时偿清所有债务 将当前短期债务转化为长期债务，并将之放入“分阶计划”，到2025年偿清