Lecture 5 Poverty and Development. 5-2 重难点 1 、贫困衡量方法 2 、中国反贫困政策.

Presentation on theme: "Lecture 5 Poverty and Development. 5-2 重难点 1 、贫困衡量方法 2 、中国反贫困政策."— Presentation transcript:

1 Lecture 5 Poverty and Development

2 5-2 重难点 1 、贫困衡量方法 2 、中国反贫困政策

3 5-3 别有用心还是揭露真相？ 2011 年 11 月 29 日，中央扶贫开发工作会议在北京 召开。国务院总理温家宝在会上宣布，中央决定将 农民人均纯收入 2300 元作为新的国家扶贫标准。 该标准比现行 1196 元提高了 92% 。 不过，将中国新贫困标准与国际标准相比较，美国 之音电台网站等一些国外媒体认为中国的贫困线依 然低于 1.25 美元国际标准。

4 5-4 5.1 Measuring Poverty Absolute poverty ： The situation of being unable or only barely able to meet the subsistence essentials of food,clothing, and shelter. international poverty line ： The $1-a-day line was first set in 1987 dollars, and for years the standard was $1.08 in 1993 U.S. purchasing power parity. In 2008, the equivalent line was reset at $1.25 （ $2 ） at 2005 U.S. purchasing power.

5 5-5 5.1 Measuring Poverty practical strategy for determining a local absolute poverty line is to start by defining an adequate basket of food ， then adds other expenditures of this household, such as clothing, shelter, and medical care –Headcount Index: H/N –Where H is the number of persons who are poor and N is the total number of people in the economy

6 5-6 中国贫困线 中国农村贫困标准在 1985 年、 1990 年、 1994 年、 1997 年由国家统计局根据全国农村住户调查分户 资料测定，期间他年份则使用农村居民消费价格指 数进行更新；在 1997 年，采用了世界银行推荐的 确定贫困线的基本方法（即每日热量摄入 2100 大 卡）；

7 5-7 中国贫困线 1998 年，国家统计局开始测算低收入标准和低收 入人口比重，从 2000 年起向社会公布，方法是： 采用 1997 年的食物贫困线，再利用在贫困状况下 食物消费份额占总生活消费的 60 ％的假设，计算 低收入标准为 880 元。国家统计局的低收入标准与 世界银行的 1 美元 1 天的标准是基本一致的 从 2008 年始，中国的绝对贫困标准和相对贫困标 准将合二为一，把低收入标准作为新的扶贫标准。

8 5-8 中国贫困线 2011 年，我国将贫困线提升至 2300 元（ 2010 年 不变价），或 6.3 元每天，按汇率计算，仅为 1 美 元每天左右，看起来比世界银行划定的每人每天 1.25 美元贫困线低出很多。但是，世界银行的贫 困线是按购买力平价汇率而非市场汇率计算。 2010 年的 6.3 元 =2005 年 5.35 元，期间中国农村 地区物价上涨了 17.7% ； 2005 年，中国人均 GDP 是 14185 元人民币 =4965PPP 美元， 2.86 元 =1PPP 美元， 5.35 元 RMB= 1.87 PPP 美元。 几乎比世界银行贫困线 1.25 美元高出 50% 。

9 5-9 中国贫困线

10 5-10 5.1 Measuring Poverty Measuring Absolute Poverty –Total poverty gap: –Where Y p is the absolute poverty line; and Y i the income of the ith poor person

11 5-11 Figure 5.6 Measuring the Total Poverty Gap

12 5-12 5.1 Measuring Poverty Measuring Absolute Poverty –Average poverty gap (APG): –Where N is number of persons in the economy –TPG is total poverty gap –Note: normalized poverty gap, NPG = APG/Y p

13 5-13 5.1 Measuring Poverty Measuring Absolute Poverty –Average income shortfall (AIS): –Where H is number of poor persons –TPG is total poverty gap –Note: Normalized income shortfall, NIS = AIS/Y p

14 5-14 5.1 Measuring Poverty Measuring Absolute Poverty (continued) –The Foster-Greer-Thorbecke (FGT) index: –N is the number of persons, H is the number of poor persons, and α ≥0 is a parameter

15 5-15 5.1 Measuring Poverty –When α =0, we get the headcount index measure –If α = 1, we get the normalized poverty gap NPG –When α =2, we get the “P 2 ” measure Sen index

16 5-16 5.1 Measuring Poverty 4 criteria for a desirable poverty measure that are widely accepted by development economists: the anonymity （匿名性原则）, population independence （人口独立性原则）, monotonicity （单调性原则）, and distributional sensitivity principles （分配敏感性原则）. Sen index and FGT satisfy all four of the poverty axioms. The headcount ratio measure satisfies anonymity, population independence, and monotonicity,but it fails on distributional sensitivity. The simple headcount fails even to satisfy the population independence principle.

17 5-17 5.1 Measuring Poverty Measuring Absolute Poverty UNDP Human Poverty Index from 1997 to 2009 In 2010, the UNDP replaced the HPI with its new Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI)

18 5-18 The Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI) Identification of poverty status through a dual cutoff: First, cutoff levels within each dimension (analogous to falling below a poverty line for example $1.25 per day for income poverty); Second, cutoff in the number of dimensions in which a person must be deprived (below a line) to be deemed multidimensionally poor.30% or more. MPI focuses on deprivations in health, education, and standard of living; and each receives equal (that is one-third of the overall total) weight.

19 5-19 MPI Indicators Health - two indicators with equal weight - whether any child has died in the family, and whether any adult or child in the family is malnourished –weighted equally (each counts as one-sixth toward the maximum deprivation in the MPI) Education - two indicators with equal weight - whether no household member completed 5 years of schooling, and whether any school-aged child is out of school for grades 1 through 8 (each counts one-sixth toward the MPI). Standard of Living, equal weight on 6 deprivations (each counts as 1/18 toward the maximum): lack of electricity; insufficiently safe drinking water; inadequate sanitation; inadequate flooring; unimproved cooking fuel; lack of more than one of 5 assets – telephone, radio, TV, bicycle, and motorbike.

20 5-20 Computing the MPI The MPI for the country (or region or group) is then computed A convenient way to express the resulting value is H*A, i.e., The product of the headcount ratio H (the percent of people living in multidimensional poverty), and the average intensity of deprivation A (the percent of weighted indicators for which poor households are deprived on average). The adjusted headcount ratio HA is readily calculated HA satisfies some desirable properties.

21 5-21 Table 5.2 MPI Rankings and Poverty Headcounts for Selected Countries

22 5-22 5.2 Absolute Poverty: Extent and Magnitude Progress on Extreme Poverty –Clear progress on $1.25-a-day headcount –Less clear progress on $2.00-per- day headcount (see Figure 5.14) –Incidence of extreme poverty is uneven

23 5-23 Figure 5.14 Global and Regional Poverty Trends

24 5-24 Table 5.5 Regional Poverty Incidence, 2005

25 5-25 Table 5.6 Poverty Incidence in Selected Countries

26 5-26 Table 5.6 Poverty Incidence in Selected Countries (continued)

27 5-27 Growth and Poverty Are the reduction of poverty and the acceleration of growth in conflict? Is rapid growth bad for the poor ？ Would public expenditures required for the reduction of poverty entail a reduction in the rate of growth ？ There are at least five reasons why policies focused toward reducing poverty levels need not lead to a slower rate of growth ：

28 5-28 Growth and Poverty First, widespread poverty creates conditions in which the poor have no access to credit Second, the rich in many contemporary poor countries are generally not noted for their frugality or for their desire to save and invest. Third, the low incomes and low levels of living for the poor, which are manifested in poor health, nutrition, and education, can lower their economic productivity and thereby lead directly and indirectly to a slower-growing economy.

29 5-29 Growth and Poverty Fourth, raising the income levels of the poor will stimulate an overall increase in the demand for locally produced necessity products Fifth ， a reduction of mass poverty can stimulate healthy economic expansion by acting as a powerful material and psychological incentive to widespread public participation in the development process.

30 5-30 5.3 Economic Characteristics of High-Poverty Groups Rural poverty Women and poverty Ethnic minorities, indigenous populations, and poverty

31 5-31 Table 5.7 Poverty: Rural versus Urban

32 5-32 Problems of Gender Relations in Developing Countries: Voices of the Poor Sister, if you don’t beat them, they’ll stop being good. And if they’re good and you beat them, they'll stay that way.—A man in Bangladesh When I was working, I used to decide. When she is working, she owns her money and does anything she wishes.—A man from Vila Junqueira, Brazil

33 5-33 Table 5.8 Indigenous Poverty in Latin America

34 5-34 5.4 中国反贫困政策

35 5-35 5.4 中国反贫困政策 第一阶段：建立制度基础阶段，新中国成立至 1978 年。在农村，土地改革运动消灭了土地私有 制，为消除贫困与不平等建立了坚实的制度基础。 第二阶段，体制改革推动扶贫阶段， 1978-1985 年 ， 1978 年开始了农村经营制度的改革，解放了农 村生产力，提高了土地产出率，这为解决农村的贫 困问题打开了出路。从 1978 年到 1985 年，没有解 决温饱的贫困人口从 2.5 亿人减少到 1.25 亿人，占 农村人口的比例下降到 14.8 ％。

36 5-36 5.4 中国反贫困政策 第三阶段：大规模开发式扶贫阶段， 1986-1993 年。成 立专门扶贫工作机构，安排专项资金，制定专门的优 惠政策，确定了开发式扶贫方针。到 1993 年底，农村 贫困人口由 1.25 亿人减少到 8000 万人，占农村总人口 的比重从 14.8% 下降到 8.7% 。 第四阶段：扶贫攻坚阶段， 1994-2000 年。以 1994 年 《国家八七扶贫攻坚计划》的公布实施为标志，中国 的扶贫开发进入了攻坚阶段。该计划力争用 7 年左右的 时间，基本解决农村贫困人口的温饱问题。

37 5-37 5.4 中国反贫困政策 第五阶段：巩固深化阶段。 2001 年至今。《中国 农村扶贫开发纲要（ 2001—2010 年）》，巩固温 饱成果，提高贫困人口的生活质量和综合素质，为 达到小康水平创造条件。《中国农村扶贫开发纲要 (2011-2020) 》，稳定实现扶贫对象不愁吃、不愁 穿，保障其义务教育、基本医疗和住房。