Supply Chain Management 供應鏈管理 Supply Chain Management 資訊管理學系 研討會 陳光敏 (Timothy) 5-Mar-2007

觀念和理論篇 供應鏈管理概念及範圍 供應鏈管理重要性及價值 三大核心流程及相關觀念 資訊系統應用 附錄 – 常見術語 綜合討論

Oracle Profile 全球最大企業軟體廠商 US$144億營業額，年研發經費US$19億 全球 275,000 家客戶 30,000+ 應用軟體客戶 19,000+ 中小企業客戶 65,000+ 位員工; 7,500+ 技術支援員工 145 個國家設有營業據點

供應鏈管理概念 The supply chain can be viewed as a series of integrated enterprises which must share information and coordinate physical execution to ensure a smooth, integrated flow of goods, information and cash through the pipeline. Suppliers Customers Retailer Manufacturer Wholesaler PRODUCT INFORMATION CASH

Local Delivery Carrier 供應鏈管理概念 (續) Most real-world pipelines do not satisfy the integration and information-sharing requirements for true transparent pipeline management Logistics as Currently Operated Logistics As Desired Local Delivery Carrier Inbound Carrier Vendor Manufacturing Distribution Customer

Information Technology Business Rules and Practices 供應鏈範圍 The supply chain is a compilation of activities, functions, and procedures which enable raw materials to be converted into products, delivered and consumed by end users. . . Information Technology Strategic Network Planning Procurement Supply Demand Order Management Inventory Management Transportation Warehousing Suppliers Customers Business Rules and Practices SUPPLIER MANUFACTURING DISTRIBUTION CUSTOMER CONSUMER Source: Supply Chain Council

供應鏈範圍(續) Seeks to integrate into one synergistic effort all the relevant operations of a corporation, including marketing, design, customer service, production, purchasing, logistics, and supplier and inventory management. “From your supplier’s supplier to your customer’s customer” Source: Supply Chain Council

企業面臨的挑戰 競合對象與巿場區隔日漸全球化 多樣少量, 客製化取代大量生產 產品生命週期縮短 研發及製程技術日新月異 知識及智慧財產權資本化 快速回應巿場變化

常見的議題 Can we match the competitor’s 20% price cut? The carrier can’t ship on time, who should we call? Material is shortage! How about second source? Can we accept the rush order? And what impact will be caused?(ATP) Improved Service Level Flexible Responsive Business Process Quality Greater Customer Satisfaction Lower assets level Less logistics costs The line is down for 8 hours, where do we make this? Can we offer our major client CTO/HUB/CRP? How can we make sure vendor can delivery on time?

供應鏈管理的挑戰 客戶端 生產端 供應端 長鞭效應 (Bullwhip)產生安全緩衝 需求善變造成預測困難 沒有耐心壓縮反應時間 缺乏管理決策所需資訊 變更設計難以控制 產銷協調困難 供應端 供應商交期難控制 供應商品質不穏定 長鞭效應 (Bullwhip)產生安全緩衝

啤酒遊戲 (Beer Game) Peter M. Senge, 第五項修鍊 (The Fifth Discipline) 60年代麻省理工學院之史隆管理學院發展 啤酒遊戲簡介：  參加遊戲的成員各自扮演不同的角色：零售商(Retailer)、大盤商(Wholesaler)、配銷商(Distributor)和工廠(Factory)。他們每週的決策就是訂購多少啤酒 四個角色之間的聯繫只能通過訂貨傳送單來溝通資訊，不能有其他方式的資訊交流。 在啤酒遊戲中每個角色除了工廠外。每個角色都有啤酒庫存，都從下游收到訂單，並且把貨賣給下游。 Source: TopBoss

啤酒遊戲 (Beer Game) 續 啤酒遊戲中，消費者需求變動的幅度很小，然而通過整個系統的放大作用將產生很大的危機。即首先是大量缺貨，整個系統訂單都不斷增加，庫存逐漸枯竭，欠貨也不斷增加，好不容易達到訂貨單大批交貨，不料新收到訂貨數量卻開始驟降，這也就是供應鏈中著名的「長鞭效應(Bullwhip Effect)」。

供應鏈管理概論 六大環節: 研發設計 – 採購 – 製造 – 運交 – 銷售 – 服務 三個層面: 規劃, 執行, 評量

供應鏈管理的演進 部門導向 流程導向 整合性企業體 企業間體系整合 客戶及供應商為交易對方 各部門成本利潤中心 客戶及供應商為交易對方及商業夥伴 重視部門間橫向流程 整合性企業體 客戶及供應商為商業夥伴及交易對方 注重整體營運資源求計畫及整體績效 企業間體系整合 客戶及供應商為商業夥伴 走向網狀整合模式

供應鏈管理的價值 提高營運收入 降低營運支出 提高運轉資金效率 提高資產設備利用效率

同時考量成本、品質、時間 “Serve the customer better, faster, and cheaper” SCM incorporates a holistic, balanced approach to improving business performance. Cost ENHANCED REVENUE & PROFIT Quality Time “Serve the customer better, faster, and cheaper”

供應鏈管理效益 40% 27% Delivery Performance - - - - - 16% - 28% Inventory Reduction - - - - - - Fulfillment Cycle Time - - - - Forecast Accuracy - - - - - - - - Overall Productivity - - - - - - Lower Supply Chain Costs - Order Fill Rates - - - - - - - - - Improved Capacity Utilization - - - - - - - - - - - - - 16% - 28% 25% - 60% 30% - 50% 25% - 80% 10% - 16% 25% - 50% 20% - 30% 10% - 20% Inventory Reduction 50% 40% On-time Deliveries Cumulative Cycle Time 27% Source: 1996 AMR/PRTM Supply Chain Reference Model

供應鏈管理三大核心流程 需求規劃 (Demand Planning) 供應規劃 (Supply Planning) 需求履行 (Demand Fulfillment) IDEA DESIGN PULL PULL PULL PULL PULL PRODUCT DEVELOPMENT AND ENGINEERING MANUFACTURING PLANTS DISTRIBUTOR CENTERS SUPPLIERS CUSTOMERS END USERS

需求規劃(Demand Planning) 需求預測 (Demand Forecasting) 由上而下 (Top-Down Forecasting) 由下而上 (Bottom-Up Forecasting) 生命週期規劃 (Life Cycle Planning) 行銷事件規劃 (Event Planning) 相依需求預測 (Dependent Demand Forecasting) 共識預測 (Consensus Forecasting) 需求協同作業 (Demand Collaboration) 彈性限制規劃 (Flex Limit Planning) 計算淨預測量 (Forecast Netting)

需求規劃之效益 低庫存水準 減少呆滯品風險 增加策略銷售通路的客戶服務水準 增加新產品上巿的成功率

供應規劃 (Supply Planning) 建立供應商及外包商供應體系 (Supply System) 企業規劃 (Corporate Planning) 作業規劃 (Operation Planning) 存貨規劃 (Inventory Planning) 主規劃 (Master Planning) 製造廠規劃 (Factory Planning) 採購協同作業 (Procurement Collaboration) 運輸規劃(Transportation Planning)及協同作業 配置規劃(Allocation Planning)及協同作業

需求履行(Demand Fulfillment) 訂單承諾 (Order Promising) 訂單規劃 (Order Planning) 訂單履行 (Order Fulfillment)

常見接單達交模式 MTS (Make to Stock) MTO (Make to Order) ATO (Assembly to Order) ETO (Engineering to Order) CTO (Configuration to Order)

Supplier Collaboration Distribution Planning 供應鏈管理範圍–依功能別 Corporate HQ Demand Planning Supplier Collaboration Plant Suppliers Production Scheduling Customers Suppliers ATP Customers Supply Chain Planning Suppliers Customers Plant Suppliers Manufacturing Planning Distribution Center Supply Chain Network Design Distribution Planning Enterprise Source: AMR

供應鏈管理範圍-依時間軸 Planning Detail Time Horizon Execution System Shipment Scheduling Production Scheduling Transportation Planning Manufacturing Planning Planning Detail Distribution Planning Inventory Planning Available-to-Promise Supply Chain Planning Sales and Operations Planning Demand Planning Supply Chain Network Design Strategic Planning Seconds/Minutes Hours/Days Weeks/Months Quarters Years Time Horizon Source: AMR

供應商關係管理 產品開發設計 採購及生產協同運作 供應商庫存管理 (Vendor Management Inventory) 透過彼此資訊的共享, 形成既分散又整合的公司, 讓長鞭效應的效果變小,而達到降低介面成本的目的

客戶關係管理(CRM) 客戶關係管理系統(Customer Relationship Management)，包含『行銷』、『銷售』、『服務』之全方位整合體系，除隨時檢討服務流程外，更應藉助各項資訊技術與相關應用軟體產品，在服務客戶的過程中，累積可獲利的能量，以便主動積極找尋商機，『適時』、『適量』、『適切』的提供客戶個人化產品，提高企業營業規模，達到企業最重要的『獲利』目標。

先進規劃排程 (Advance Planning and Scheduling) 針對SCM的各項變數及限制進行需求、生產及配銷運籌規劃的運算, 運用電腦執行先進的演算法則, 並加上動態規劃 結合限制理論(Theory of Constraint)及模塑技術(Modeling)做為決策支援的工具 常見效益 Constraint-based production scheduling Visibility of potential issue What-if simulation Alternative solution

先進規劃排程系統功能 自動負載平衡演算法 支援設計變更的功能 替代料及替代資源規劃 建立資源行事曆 供給限制因素 支援多工廠模型

CPFR Collaboration, Planning, Forecasting and Replenishment 由美國自發性產業間商務標準協會(Voluntary Interindustry Commerce Standards)所提出 通常使用於百貨與流通業 解決行業特性的挑戰 品項多, 門巿分散 訂貨頻率短且多次 操作人員少 時效性要求高 營業額與利潤 = 適當的(產品+定價+地點+數量+顧客+時段)

CPFR 三大階段九大步驟 階段 步驟 工作項目 第一階段 規劃 Planning Step1 建立協同關係 Step2 建立共同營運計劃 第二階段 預測 Forecasting Step3 建立銷售預測 Step4 識別銷售預測的異常狀況 Step5 協同解決異常項目 Step6 建立訂單預測 Step7 識別訂單預測的異常狀況 Step8 第三階段 補貨 Replenishment Step9 產生訂單

CPFR Model Sources: eBizPrise

CPFR的價值 收入機會 降低存貨 增加存貨週轉率 提高總資產報酬率

價值鏈管理(Value Chain Mgmt) 以客戶為核心, 滿足客戶的個別需求 依客戶需求而拉動供應鏈 企業協同供應商從產品創意發起, 一直到把產品交給最終客戶的完整流程

Demand Driven Supply Network DDSN Demand Driven Supply Network A system of technologies & processes that senses & reacts to real-time demand signals across a supply network of customers, suppliers, employees Source : AMR Research

“keep the factory full” “give them what they want” You can’t push a chain 20th Century - PUSH 21st Century - PULL “keep the factory full” “give them what they want” Source : AMR Research

DDSN Capability Model Orchestrate Collaborate Anticipate React Continually aim for perfection Collaborate Extend the definition value outside your own company Anticipate Sensing and shape the demand React Respond to customer demand Source : AMR Research

How To Go DDSN With Oracle Solutions Orchestrate Supply Network Design, Balanced Score Card Collaborate Collaborative Planning Anticipate Demand Management, Trade Promotion Management React . React – 1.ATP, 2.那些不行, 3.optimization的strategy, 4.機台產能排程, 5.G-Log, transportation排出貨 . Anticipate – 1.Demandtra 得到 consensus, 2.promotion plan 去evaluate promotion效果, 產生真正的成長量, 不是提前買, 或是吸收自己另一個產品的購買者, 並可依過去歷史資料及設定參數而計算出最佳定價, 預期增加銷售量… . Collaboration – 1. collaborative planning, 供應商/客戶上網查看供貨狀況 . Orchestrate – 1.Supply network optimization, 貨品流動由深到淺, 線條粗細代表流動數量. 2.Balanced scorecard Supply Chain Planning, Global Order Promising, Production Scheduling Transportation Planning

附錄 常見術語

常見術語 MRO – Maintenance, Repair and Operation. 間接性物料採購 PDM – Product Data Management. 產品資料管理 PLM – Product Lifecycle Management 產品生命週期管理 MES – Manufacturing Execution System. 製造執行系統 Utilization Rate – 機器稼動率. 產能使用量占最大產能比率 JIT – Just in Time. 即時化生產或零庫存管理 VMI – Vendor Management Inventory. 供應商管理庫存 Alternative Material – 可替代的物料 Alternative Routing – 可替代的生產線 Outsourcing Routing – 外包生產線

常見術語 (續) Master Production Schedule (MPS) – 主生產排程 Material Requirement Planning (MRP) – 物料需求規劃 Lead Time – 前置時間 B2B (Business to Business) – 企業對企業電子商務 B2C (Business to Consumer) – 企業對消費者電子商務 Rush Order – 緊急訂單或工單 Re-work – 不良重修 RMA – Return Merchandise Authorization/Approval 退貨核準驗收 Original Design Manufacture (ODM) – 客戶委託設計製造代工 Original Equipment Manufacture (OEM) – 客戶委託製造代工

常見術語 (續) Sales Force Automation (SFA) – 業務自動化系統 Online Analytical Process (OLAP) – 線上查詢分析程序 Online Transaction Process (OLTP) – 線上交易系統 RosettaNet – 為一非營利機構, 由全球資訊、電子元件及半導體業者共同發展出產業供應鏈標準,以利B2B整合 Rough-Cut Capacity Planning (RCCP) – 粗略產能規劃 Capacity Requirement Planning (CRP) – 產能需求規劃 Theory of Constraint (TOC) – 限制理論 Hard Constraint – 無法踰越的限制條件 Soft Constraint – 可以磋商的限制條件 Time Bucket – 規劃過程中使用的時間單位

常見術語 (續) Stock Keeping Unit (SKU) – 貨品保存單位 Engineering Change Notice (ECN) – 工程變更通知 .

綜合討論