Adaptive Planning 适应性规划 Training Course on Climate Change: Physical and Socio-Economic Impact and Risk Assessments Workshop 中国适应气候变化自然与社会经济影响与风险评 估研讨会培训课程 Presidential Plaza Hotel, Beijing 北京国宾酒店 March 3-5, 2010 2010年3月3-5日 ISET, UKCIP and WRI 英国社会经济转型所、英国气候影响项目、世界能源研究所 1

“Climate Change, a wicked problem” “气候变化，一个难缠的问题” Impacts will be both direct and local AND indirect due to changes far away 既有直接、局部的影响，又有间接、长期 的影响 Occurring within and interlinked with dynamic social, economic and political processes 既存在于社会、经济与政治发展进程之中， 又与之相互联系 The majority of current disaster response actions are autonomously taken by individuals, households and businesses in response to perceived risk and opportunities. This will also be true of climate adaptation strategies and actions. Planned adaptation by governments is a small part of the “adaptation iceberg”. However, planned adaptation is extremely important in reducing maladaptive behaviour and providing safety nets when autonomous strategies fail. 2

Adaptive Planning: Not What You Might Expect 意料之外的适应规划 It is NOT possible to formally plan adaptation strategies for every climate change scenario. 并不是每个气候变化情景分析都能 产生规范的适应策略规划。 But it IS possible to plan to build systems that ENABLE adaptation. 但却可以规划设立相应系统，使适 应成为可能。 In other words, adaptive planning means planning to LEARN. 换句话说，适应性规划意味着有计 划的学习。 规划适应 自发适应 适应的冰川效应 © ISET

Adaptation: An Iterative Shared Learning Cycle 适应：反复共享学习周期 The first iteration of adaptation planning to implementation involves an assessment of where you are now: - Your capacities. - The processes you already have in place for dealing with disaster risk reduction, poverty reduction & economic development and environmental protection - Roles and responsibilities for plans and implementation of plans - Your near-term goals and objectives, keeping in mind that these lay the pathway for future courses of action. 4

Practical Tools for Adaptive Planning (1) 实用适应性规划工具（1） Climate Vulnerability Assessments 气候脆弱性评估 Stakeholder Consultations and Engagement 咨询利益相关者并与之相结合 Shared Learning Dialogues 共享学习对话 Risk Assessments 风险评估 Cost Benefit Analysis: qualitative over quantitative 成本收益分析: 从定量分析到定性分析 Merging global climate science with local climate knowledge and experience 将全球气候科学与当地气候知识与经验相融合 There are multiple tools and techniques to assist in iterative adaptation learning processes. Some of these tools have been discussed in the previous days. Other techniques will be discussed this afternoon. 5

Practical Tools to Adaptive Planning (2) 实用适应性规划工具（2） Environmental Impact Assessments 环境影响评估 Technical Feasibility 技术可行性研究 Capacity Assessments 能力评估 Institutional Analysis 体制分析 Multi-Criteria Scenarios, Threshold and Sensitivity Analyses，including beyond coping 多标准情景分析、阈值和敏感性分析（包含超越性应对） Policy coordination and planning 政策协调与规划 There are multiple tools and techniques to assist in iterative adaptation learning processes. Some of these tools have been discussed in the previous days. Other techniques will be discussed this afternoon. 6

Outcomes 成果 Presentation and discussions of objectives and processes 对目标与进程进行发言讨论 Building of a meta-plan 元计划的设立 Sharing understanding and experiences 共享知识与经 验 Strengths and weakness of various approaches, and tools 探讨不同方法与工具的优势与劣势 Identifying next steps (post workshop actions) 确定下一步（研讨会后）工作计划 This day has been designed to assist you in beginning the first iterative, shared learning process to build climate resiliency in your province. Need to run through how the first breakout session will be conducted, the purpose of and how to construct metaplans. 7

Building an Adaptive Planning Process 建立适应规划的过程 Adaptation goals and objectives 适应目标 Capacities and processes 能力及建立过程 Combining these to make your adaptation planning process 结合上述内容制定适应规划进程

Summary 总结 Complex climate problem requires: 气候问题综合需求 Iterative learning 反复学习 Working across disciplines 围绕原则开展 Multiple, flexible solutions多重、灵活的解决 方案

Questions for you:问题 What are your adaptation goals? 您的适应目标是什么 Where do these goals come from? 目标来源 How long do you think these goals will be valid? 2 years? 5 years? 20? 达到目标的时间？2年？5年？20年

Questions for you:问题 What capacities do you have to achieve your adaptation goals?达到适应目标所 需的能力 Who will help you with your goals?谁将 帮助您达到目标 Which stakeholders?那些利益相关方 How will you use information and models to help you with your goals 怎样使用这些信息和模型帮助您达到目 标