North China Sea Marine Forecasting Center, SOA EU China Blue Year Event - forecasting, data, monitoring, planning, indicators Applications of Marine Observation Data and Numerical Models in North China Sea 海洋观测数据与数值模式在中国北海区的应用 LI Rui North China Sea Marine Forecasting Center, SOA 2017/6/2, Brussels, Belgium

Observation network 29 ocean stations 12 buoys 2 HF Radar systems 23 volunteer ship 50 sea bed bases Satellite data platform & 500+ SAR images 3 monitoring vehicles Unmanned aircraft

North China Sea Marine Forecasting Center Observation network North China Sea Marine Forecasting Center Ocean stations Buoys Volunteer ships HF radar Sea-bed bases monitoring vehicles Satellites Unmanned aircrafts

Numerical forecast system Oil spill Search and Rescue Green tide Emergency Response Meteorology(WRF) Hydrologic (ROMS, FVCOM) Ocean wave (WWIII, SWAN) Ocean Environment Storm surge (FVCOM) Sea ice (CIOM, FVCOM) Marine Disaster As to the forecast, we have established an integrated numerical forecast model system. The foundation of this system is the meteorological model, the hydrological model and the ocean wave model. Based on these models, we have established marine disaster forecast model, such as the storm surge model and sea ice model. Moreover, since the frequency of oil spill, green tide and marine perils are increasing these years, we have developed corresponding forecast models, which will be introduced later. The precision of our forecast models are quite satisfying. The relative error of wind velocity is less than 20%, and the relative error of significant wave height is less than 30%. Forecast item Wind velocity Wind direction Tide level Tidal current velocity Tidal current direction Current velocity Current direction Significant wave height Sea surface temperature 24-h error < 20% < 20° < 30 cm < 30% < 30° < 25% < 0.8℃

Application cases Green tide prevention in Yellow Sea Storm surge risk assessment for Shouguang Emergency response Sea ice response in Bohai Sea

Case 1 Green Tide in Yellow Sea

Green tide in Yellow Sea mostly caused by enteromorpha proliferation. flow on the sea surface and grow fast during summer. float from south Yellow Sea to southern Shandong coast affect the natural view of ocean and breaks the ecological condition. The Green tide disaster in Huanghai Sea is mostly caused by enteromorpha proliferation. The enteromorpha is a kind of green algae which is widely distributed along the coasts of the world's oceans. This kind of green algae flow on the sea surface and grow very fast during summer. In 2008, it appeared in the Huanghai Sea for the first time. Since then, every summer, the green tide floats from south Huanghai Sea to southern Shandong coast, which affects the natural view of ocean and breaks the ecological condition. This are two closer pictures of the green algae.

Green tide distribution 2016/6/25 2016年，引发大面积绿潮的主要藻种为浒苔。5~8月，绿潮灾害影响黄海沿岸海域，覆盖面积于6月25日达到最大值，约554平方千米；分布面积于6月25日达到最大值，约57 500平方千米，为近7年来最大值。 根据卫星遥感影像反演结果，5月10日，在江苏盐城以东海域发现漂浮绿潮藻；5月中下旬，绿潮持续向偏北方向漂移，分布面积不断扩大；5月25日，绿潮最北端到达35°N，进入北海区管辖海域；6月中旬开始有绿潮陆续影响山东半岛沿海，分布面积保持在较高水平；7月中下旬，绿潮分布面积逐渐减小，进入消亡期；8月2日，绿潮基本消亡。

Green tide near Qingdao Enteromorpha prolifera Every summer, the Qingdao nearshore areas are filled with the green tide. People look into the ocean but see only green rather than blue. Here are some pictures of the green tide. It could cover the whole nearshore region and sometime smells, which affects the nature view a lot.

Green tide monitoring Satellite Aircraft ship coastal surveillance optical satellite SAR Aircraft spectrometer photograph ship coastal surveillance Real-time video To monitor the range of green tide, we use different ways. For the big area shown in the right, we use optical satellite images. For the small area as shown in the small rectangle, we use SAR to monitor the green tide. Besides, If the green tide disaster has reached certain level, we also use data from aircraft, ship, coastal surveillance and realtime video.

Case 2 Storm Surge Risk Assessment

Shouguang, Shandong, China Bohai Sea

Extratropical storm surge in Shouguang, Shandong, China 2010/9/21 2013/10/12 2015/10/18

Data type and acquisition Data “in ocean” Long-term tide, wave, wind Data “on land” Land-use Digital Line Graphic(DLG) Urban Cadastral Problems: data acquired from different departments Data “in ocean”: State Oceanic Administration Data “on land”: Department of Land and Resources

Data Land altitude(1:50,000) Land use(1:5,000)

Storm surge risk assessment Data Numerical model Outcome Risk levels and areas Evacuation routes Data Long-term hydrological and meteorological observation Landuse Digital Line Graphic(DLG) Urban Cadastral Numerical model WRF, MIKE 21 FM Outcome Risk levels and areas Evacuation routes

Risk assessment and response Warning water level gauge Warning water level gauge Evacuation routes Emergency supplies

Case 3 Marine Emergency Response

Oil spill monitoring and forecast SAR images 2-D Trajectory prediction model 2-D trajectory and fate prediction model 3-D trajectory and fate prediction model Forecast model 2-D source tracing model 2-D source tracing probability model Source tracing model

Search and rescue

Case 4 Sea Ice Monitoring and Forecast in Bohai Sea

Sea ice in Bohai Sea 5 ranks: (1)light (2)less light (3)normal (4)less serious (5) serious

Approaches Parameters Sea Ice Monitoring Shoreline survey Aircraft Ships, buoys and oil platform Vehicle-based radar Satellite Field survey Parameters Area Intensity Ice type Ice shape Drifting velocity and direction Ice thickness outline 监测要素 浮冰监测项目：冰量、密集度、冰型、表面特征、冰状、冰块大小、漂流速度和方向、冰厚及冰区边缘线等； 固定冰监测项目：堆积量、堆积高度、固定冰宽度和厚度等； 冰山监测项目：位置、大小、形状及漂流方向和速度等； 海冰的辅助监测项目：海面能见度、气温、水温、海水盐度、风速与风向及简易天气现象等。 监测手段 目前，监测海冰主要有“目测法”、“器测法”和“遥测法”3种方法。 目测法是海冰监测传统的基本观测方法，这种方法是根据海冰观测规范规定，依靠观测员的眼睛和经验进行观测， 如冰量、流冰密集度、流冰冰状、固定冰状等。 器测法是同目测法相结合的方法。这种方法是借助工具和仪器，依靠观测员的手工操作和读数据，如冰厚、冰温、 冰密度、堆集高度等。这些数据是遥测法观测结果进行量值定标处理的依据，所以器测法是海冰监测的重要方法。 遥测法是应用现代科学技术建立的先进方法。这种方法可以完全依赖仪器本身进行观测，如利用卫星能及时、同步、大范围观测海冰。彩色海冰卫星图片则能直观地一目了然地展示海冰的分布情况。但是对冰厚、冰温等要素的观测，目前远不如器测法准确。

Monitoring Approaches 1: Shoreline survey

Monitoring Approach 2: Aircraft 鲅鱼圈冰情 锦州9-3油田冰情

Monitoring Approach 3: Ships, buoys and oil platform 现场组装 吊放 布放入位 2014-2-04JZ20-2MUQ每5分钟振动幅值曲线

Monitoring Approach 4: Vehicle-based radar 4．车载雷达 　　海冰车载雷达可以连续测量海冰的雷达回波数据，确定海冰的分布范围及漂移状况，获取了客观准确的遥感图像；

Monitoring Approach 5: Satellite

WEBGIS platform

Monitoring Approach 6: Mechanical field survey

Sea ice forecast Statistic forecast Numerical forecast 3 days Monthly Yearly Numerical forecast FVCOM CIOM

Problems Ice thickness monitoring is inaccurate Numerical model accuracy still needs to be improved 10-15 days forecast is less accurate than short & long-term forecast

Future cooperation Similarities of Bohai and Baltic Sea Enclosed seas Shallow seas, mean water level less than 60 m Weak water exchange with outer sea Sea ice in winter Looking forward to more cooperation Workshops, technique exchange, etc. 渤海 Bohai Sea 波罗的海 Baltic Sea

Thank you very much for your listening! LI Rui North China Sea Marine Forecasting Center, SOA E-MAIL: lirui@bhfj.gov.cn TEL: +86 532 5875 0655