Professor Bill Hebenton Law School University of Manchester UK Bill Professor Bill Hebenton Law School University of Manchester UK Bill.Hebenton@manchester.ac.uk

The British Police in 2050 ? An analysis of the impact of history and reform

Looking back and forward….鑒往知來 羅馬傳說中有一位名叫Janus的守護神 有先後兩張臉, 一張回顧過去一張要眺望未來, 也是一月(January)名稱由來, 代表 除舊迎新的第一個月

民眾對英國警察的認知

警察執法的根據 Working rules those internalised by police officers to become guiding principles 不成文的「慣例」「經驗」 Inhibitory rules are those which are not internalised, and which are seen as ‘deterrent’ in nature 警察內部的各種法規 Presentational rules are ones which exist to give an acceptable appearance in the way police work is carried out 對民眾宣導的執法法規

歐洲各國警民比與犯罪率之關係

Policing Expenditure as a percentage of GDP

Spending on law and order 2.5percent of GDP – (highest in OECD, USA) 25 percent cut by 2014 10-12,000 police officers 目前英國警察人數約130,000, 2014將減少一萬至一萬二人，英國人口約六千萬

英國各類犯罪的破案率

Eight factors which helped to legitimate police (1850s… Eight factors which helped to legitimate police (1850s….1970s) 警察的合法性來源（十九世紀至七零年代） Establishing a disciplined organization with clear standards and lines of responsibility ; 具有規範的組織架構（軍事化管理、階層化，以減少人為干擾） Allowing the police to be subject to the rule of law, or at least creating the appearance that they were; 依法行政 Following the strategy of minimal force, and propagating an image and ideology of the British police associated with that; 避免動用武力原則 Remaining at-a-distance from politics and insulated from direct political control; 政治獨立，法律是政治與警察之間的緩衝，  

Cultivating the idea that the police were accountable to the courts and in a mystical way to the British people rather than to the state; 警察與法律、民眾站在一起，不是站在政府這邊 Emphasizing the service role in order to secure acceptance for coercive actions; 強調社區服務，目的是讓民眾支持執法 Emphasizing the primacy of prevention rather than detection; 強調犯罪預防，更甚於犯罪嚇阻 Cultivating at least the appearance of effectiveness in controlling crime and maintaining order 主要功能控制犯罪與維持社會秩序

New challenges to legitimacy 1970s- now 1970年代後英國警察面臨的新挑戰 1.Terrorism and our ‘exceptional’ response 恐怖主義與極端回應（後來成為常態之一部分） 2.Emergence of market in ‘security’ 私人安全產業的興起 3.New interpretations of accountability 績效制度改變（從民主主義成為管理主義） 4.Centralisation（權力趨向中央一條鞭制） 5.Increasing diversity (human rights) （多元社會與多元警政） 6.Prevention, ‘risk’, intelligence led policing（風險管理警政、情資導向警政，警察根據情資設定自己執法的優先順序）

Migration - Half of the increase of the UK population between 1991 and 2010 (2.4 million in absolute terms) was due to the direct contribution of net migration. 移民：1991-2010年間英國增加兩百四十萬移民，佔英國人口增加來源的一半 http://www.guardian.co.uk/news/datablog/2010/jun/26/non-eu-immigration-uk-statistics

Case example : public order tactics, intelligence and scandal 舉例：警察處理陳抗活動之策略、情資收集與弊端

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FRj2K0ulD8Q (poll tax, 1990) 抗議政府徵人口稅 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bhRzXjv3eak (G20 peace camp April 2009) 抗議G20高峰會 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HECMVdl-9SQ (Tomlnson April 2009) 抗議警察失手被害人死亡，警察意圖吃案 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HMeLry-xnsg (kettling tactic) 警察處理陳抗的「茶壺圍堵」策略 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1v38KhuHqlk (August 2011) 失業青年暴動 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uEVHaCR1o48 (Aug 2011) 失業青年暴動 http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2012/jan/20/undercover-police-children-activists (便衣警察為了收集情資，偽裝民眾與抗議女性交往，並生下一子） http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0yW3aG7mq3E (dead children ID) 抗議便衣警察使用去世兒童的身分，秘密收集抗議團體之情資

英國青年人口大增的效應 Youth population Britain is undergoing an enormous demographic shift – the consequences of which few people yet understand. There are a million more 15-24 year olds in Britain today than a decade ago, and it's striking that those taking part in these riots are almost all in this age cohort. Bear in mind that the last time this group was so large was in the early 1980s (in fact it was actually a million people higher at that point).

Record levels of youth unemployment 青年失業人口創歷史新高 The number of out-of-work young people (which excludes those in education) is at the highest level since records began in 1992. This isn’t just a 2008 recession problem: youth unemployment has been on the rise for many years – though this was exacerbated by the crisis. But London isn’t the worst-affected by youth unemployment – the figures are far worse in parts of Wales and the North East.

Education, training, employment ? 歐洲各國青年就學、就訓、就業問題？

Unprecedented levels of inequality 貧富不均增加 London is Britain’s most unequal region by far, in terms of the income gap. 倫敦是英國貧富不均最嚴重的城市 2. In inner London 20% of people have 60% of the total income in the capital. 倫敦市區20%人口持有60%的財富 3. Overall UK inequality levels have risen to the highest levels since the 1960s (or alternatively the 1930s, depending on whose statistics you trust). The richest 10% of the population are more than 100 times as wealthy as the poorest 10% of society. 60年代以來，全英國前10%的富人比起最窮10%窮人的財富差距增加了100倍 4. Many of the areas affected by the rioting are approximate with “poorer areas” (similar in Manchester) -暴動地區通常是窮困區 5. Social mobility is at its lowest since 1974 1974年以來英國社會 流動達歷史新低

Benefits-dependent households 社會救濟家庭 1. London has a high and growing proportion of families entirely dependent on benefits 倫敦的社會救濟家戶數最高 2. According to a recent European Union study, there are 600,000 people under 25 in Britain who have never had a day’s work in their lives. 歐洲的調查顯示英國25歲以下青年中，有六十萬從未就業 3. An NPI map shows that these households are largely to be found in the inner city north and eastern areas, many of which have been hit by the riots 暴動發生地多半分散在倫敦北區與東區

2050 ? 所以，到了2050年時，英國警察將會… 1. Human rights agenda continues to develop 更為重視警察本身人權與被告人權 2. Professional police 更趨向專業 3. Evidence-based emphasis 更重視以證據為基礎的警政

Closing the Legitimacy Gap 如何解決警察執法合理性問題 Increased funding ? 增加警政經費（非常不可能發生） Increased contribution from partner agencies ? 機構之間的合作（非常不可能發生） Restructuring ! 警察組織重組 （正在發生中） Policing reform and Modernisation ! 警政改革與現代化（更為績效導向） THERE IS NO SUBSTANTIAL NEW INVESTMENT IN POLICING ON THE CARDS CONTRIBUTIONS FROM PARTNERS CAN BE BETTER, BUT THE COMPLICATED FUNDING AND DISPARATE PERFORMANCE REGIMES MAKE THIS EXTREMELY DIFFICULT. THE CPS FOR INSTANCE NEED TO HAVE INVESTMENT SO THAT THEY ARE MATCH FIT IN FIGHTING WHAT HAS BECOME A MULTI MILLION POUND DEFENCE INDUSTRY. RESTRUCTURING WILL PROVIDE SOME ADDITIONAL CAPABILITY FOR SOME IN PROTECTIVE SERVICES AND POTENTIALLY BACK OFFICE SAVINGS, BUT THAT COULD BE MARGINAL IN THE GRAND SCHEME OF THINGS. THE SERVCIE OPERATES IN MANY WAYS, AS IT DID OVER A 150 YEARS AGO. POLICING, IN MANY WAYS IS ARTISAN AND COULD BE DESCRIBED AS A CRAFT BASED PROFESSION. TO CLOSE THE CAPABILITY GAP, THERE NEEDS TO BE REMODELLING AND AN UNLOCKING OF THE LATENT CAPACITY THAT WE CAN START TO DEMONSTRATE WITHIN THE SERVICE. Need to enable constables and other frontline staff to succeed

Craft to Profession 警察曾經是「藝術家」，但未來會是…. Re-engineered processes 組織改造 Professionalised service 逐漸變成專業化，提供專業服務 Values 價值 Ethics 倫理 High skill 執法技巧 Matching task to skill 專業警察人數大量增加 Managing volume, complexity and risk 犯罪數字、複雜性、風險之管理導向、

Barriers to Change 警政改革的阻力 Outdated pay structure 薪資制度 Historic and divisive nationally agreed reward structures recompense longevity, rank and warranted status. Single entry point 警察單一來源 The police service has inflexible recruitment practices preventing direct entry into higher levels or specialised areas regardless of proven skills and expertise. Terms and conditions 退休年金、加班制度 This is best illustrated by the PCSO who on successfully becoming a Police constable has to resign from and rejoin the police and does not even have the ability to transfer pension provisions to their new role. THESE STRUCTURES PREVENT REWARDS BEING BASED ON THE DEMANDS OF THE ROLE, SKILLS AND ABILITIES OF THE INDIVIDUAL, PERFORMANCE DELIVERY OR REGIONAL RECRUITMENT MARKET FORCES. WITH NO INCENTIVE TO SPECIALISE OR PROFESSIONALISE, CAREER AMBITION IS DIRECTED NARROWLY TO PROMOTION AND LEADERSHIP ROLES RATHER THAN RECOGNISING DEVELOPMENT OF OUTSTANDING OR ADVANCED FRONTLINE STAFF. THIS HAS A TENDENCY TO PULL HIGH SKILL OFFICERS OUT OF WHERE THEY EXCEL, REDUCING CONTINUITY IN KEY ROLES SUCH AS NEIGHBOURHOOD POLICING

各種警政模式

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