1-2-2 影響 (a) precipitation There is discussion about during LaNina Taiwan will have drought. 2006.03.13 中國時報 反聖嬰年發酵 台灣恐大缺水 呂理德/專題報導 氣象專家警告，今年反聖嬰年現象已經相當明顯，台灣是一個偏冷又偏乾的氣候，如果此一現象持續發展，影響到未來的梅雨季節，今年民眾可能要有缺水危機的心理準備。 ……. 台大大氣系教授柳中明說，今年太平洋海水溫度，三月比二月低，二月比一月還低，目前反聖嬰現象相當明顯，反聖嬰結果，南方水分無法進來台灣地區，北方乾冷的空氣反而時常在台灣上空，總括台灣今年將是一個乾冷偏旱的冬天，如果未來四、五月梅雨來得少，缺水問題可能成為事實。 Why? Related to regional climate, In Taiwan and north South China Sea Region, because subtropical high is strengthen during LaNina and thus extended to the above area, thus because of high pressure, precipitation reduces. (a) precipitation Fig 1.31: Precipitation anomalies from CMAP
大氣沃克(Walker) 環流 (東西向)
ENSO as analogy to global warming situation (because ENSO has strong signals and we can have about 10 ENSO events (every 2-7 years) in our lifetime