Climate Change Impacts to the Water Environment and Adaptation in Taiwan Presenter：阮香蘭 博士 E-mail：a600030@wra.gov.tw 各位好，很高興有機會來參訪ICHARM。 Good morning/afternoon/evening, ladies and gentleman. I am very pleased to have the opportunity to visit ICHARM. 我是臺灣水利署的阮香蘭，以下由我來分享水利署在氣候變遷方面的研究成果， My name is 阮香蘭 and belong to Taiwan Water Resources Agency, and I want to share the research results in terms of climate change from Water Resources Agency of Taiwan. 也希望未來能與ICHARM進行更深入的交流。 I also hope that we can have more in-depth exchanges with ICHARM in the future . 2015/07/14

Outline 1 2 3 Research framework and results (2009-2015) Directions for future research (2016-2019) 簡報大致分為三個部分， My presentation roughly divide into three parts, 首先，說明研究架構與2009年至今的重要成果， First, I will explain research framework and important results since 2009 to now, 再者，說明未來三年的研究重點(2016~2019) ， Then, I will explain directions for future research in the next three years (2016-2019) , 最後，則提出一些雙方交流議題的建議。 Finally, I will propose some exchange topics. 3 Exchange topics

1 Research framework and results (2009-2015) 以下說明研究架構與2009年至今的重要成果。 Now, I am start to explain research framework and important results since 2009 to now.

Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation on Water Environment Objective： Clarify the impacts Develop adaptation strategies Build cross-field integration mechanism Target ： 2020~2039 Topic Water resources management Flood protection Sediment control Coastal protection Step 於2009年，我們啟動了一個「氣候變遷對水環境之衝擊與調適研究」專案。 In 2009, we start up a project called “Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation on Water Environment” . 目的是為了釐清氣候變遷對臺灣水環境的影響程度，發展調適策略，並建立跨域整合機制。 The objective of this project is to clarify the impacts, to develop adaptation strategies, and to build cross-domain integration mechanism. 專案目標訂為2020~2039年。 The target year of this project is 2020 ~ 2039. 本專案聚焦於四大主題：水資源管理、洪水防護、土砂管理及海岸防護。 This project focus on 4 topics: water resources management, flood mitigation, sedimentary management ,and coastal protection. 而每一個主題都以四個步驟進行探討。 Each topic is investigated by 4 steps: scenario simulation, impact assessment, risk analysis and adaptation planning. Scenario simulation Impact assessment Risk analysis Adaptation planning

assess hazard and vulnerability, and identify high-risk areas. Scenario simulation Set scenario based on IPCC AR4 Simulate rainfall data in Taiwan based on GCM results Is it OK to do nothing? Is current plan enough? Impact assessment OK NO YES OK YES NO Risk analysis assess hazard and vulnerability, and identify high-risk areas. 首先，在情境模擬方面，我們採用IPCC AR4 設定情境, 並以GCMs結果為基礎, 繁衍臺灣降雨資料。 First, in scenario simulation, we set scenario based on IPCC AR4, and simulate rainfall data in Taiwan based on GCM results. 再者，在衝擊評估方面，先評估如果不作為，未來OK嗎？ 如果不OK，再模擬既有方案，並評估是否足以因應未來嗎？ 如果仍然不足，就必需分析風險，並規劃調適計畫。 Then, in impact assessment, we assess if it is OK to do nothing in the future. If not OK, then we simulate current plan and assess if it is enough for the future. If it is still not enough, then we must analyze the risks and develop adaptation plan. 接著，在風險分析方面，我們評估危險度與脆弱度，並識別高風險區域。 In risk analysis, we assess hazard and vulnerability, and identify high-risk areas. 最後，則對高風險區域發展調適計畫，並評估調適計畫是否足以因應未來； 如果不足，則再增加或調整，直到OK為止。 Finally, we develop the adaptation plan for the high-risk areas, and assess if it is enough for the future. If it is still not enough, we will add more or adjust adaptation plan until success. Adaptation planning Develop/adjust adaptation plan YES OK NO Is adaptation plan enough?

Scenario simulation Scenario: A1B Baseline: 1980 ~ 1999 Target year: 2020 ~ 2039 GCM projection AR4 24 GCM (resolution: 300 km) Normalize grid data (resolution: 25 and 5 km) Statistical downscaling Multiply the sequence of the daily and hour precipitation in each site. Generated rainfall data 在情境模擬方面， 自2010年啟動研究，其時係採用IPCC AR4 24個GCM，以A1B情境進行統計降尺度，基期為1980~1999年 ，目標年為2020~2039 年。 In scenario simulation, we using IPCC AR4 24 GCM and A1B scenarios for statistical downscaling when start up the research since 2010 , the baseline is 1980 to 1999, and the target year is 2020 ~ 2039. 經應用統計降尺度技術，將IPCC AR4 24個GCM(解析度300公里)的模擬結果，降尺度為正規化網格資料(解析度25與5公里) 。 再應用序率繁衍方法，繁衍各站日雨量與時雨量序列。 Through the application of statistical downscaling technique, we take the simulation results of IPCC AR4 24 GCM, which the resolution is 300 km, to normalize grid data, which the resolution is 25 and 5 km. Then the stochastic model multiply method was used to multiply the sequence of the daily and hour precipitation in each station. 最後，則將資料提供給各計畫使用。 Finally, the data is opened for each subproject. Subprojects adopt data according to its plan objectives, add or produce other scenario data. Subprojects

Risk analysis Definition：R(risk)＝ H(hazard) × V(vulnerability) Procedure： Set index for H and V expert meeting analytic hierarchy process (AHP) Determine weights for H and V RISK Hazard Very high High Medium Low Very low Assess H, V and R 在風險分析方面，主要考慮危險度與脆弱度。 In risk analysis, risk and vulnerability are the main considerations. 經建立危險度與脆弱度指標與分級標準後，應用專家問卷法與層級分析法(AHP) ，決定危險度與脆弱度指標權重。 Through setting index and grading standards of risk and vulnerability, we apply analytic hierarchy process, that is AHP, to determine the weight of index of risk and vulnerability. 接著，依據問卷結果，評估危險度、脆弱度及風險。 Then, we assess risk and vulnerability according to the results of questionnaire survey. 最後，則繪製風險地圖。 Finally, we draw the risk map. Vulnerability Draw the risk map

這是2009年至今的研究成果。 This is the results since 2009. 我們已經掌握高風險區域，並且已經規劃調適方案， We has identified the high-risk areas in Taiwan, and has developed adaptation plans. 另外，我們也完成「國家氣候變遷調適計畫-水資源領域」，後續將逐年推動與執行。 We also complete “ National climate adaptation plan in water resources”, and we will promote and implement in follow-up year.

2 Directions for future research (2016-2019) 以下說明未來三年的研究重點。 Now, I will explain research focus in the next three years (2016-2019) .

For the high-risk areas Continuously track disaster records and appropriately disclose climate risks. Communicate risks with related stakeholders and develop partnership. Plan cross-field adaptation research and promote with partners. Promote adaptation index research and release the results regularly. Flood protection Sediment control Coastal protection Water resources manage-ment 對於高風險區域 For the high-risk area, 首先，將持續追蹤與分析觀測資料與災害紀錄，比對研究模擬結果，並適度公開揭露氣候風險，善盡風險告知責任 First, will continue to track and analyze observation data and disaster records and compared the simulation results, and then appropriately tell the people the risks of climate they faced . 再者，分析與識別高風險地區的相關利害關係人，包括：中央政府相關單位、地方政府、在地企業、民間團體、社區民眾、民意代表、弱勢團體等，並進行風險溝通，使利害關係人更瞭解未來可能面臨的衝擊或是機會，進而發展伙伴關係，共同規劃能夠創造雙贏的因應作為。 Next, we analyze and identify the related stakeholders in high-risk areas. The related stakeholders includes the central government, local governments, local industry, civil society, community citizens, elected representatives, and other vulnerable groups. We will communicate with them what is the risk, so that they can understand that the shock in the future or the opportunities that may face. All the communication was in order to develop a partnerships between we and related stakeholders. Finally, we want to create a win-win result. 此外，規劃跨域調適方案，現階段已經初步規劃十一項，下一頁簡報將提供更多說明。 In addition, we has planned eleven items preliminarily about cross-domain adaptation programs. I will explain that in the next slide. 最後，推動調適指標研究，未來可以定期追蹤與發布，提醒相關利害關係人持續關注，驅動更多單位共同合作，持續推動跨域調適。 Finally, we promote the research of adaptation index to track and release the results regularly. We also want to get the attention from stakeholders continually and let more units want to cooperate with us in promotion of cross-domain adjustment.

Cross-field integration 11 items about cross-field adaptation plans were planned preliminarily. Cross-field integration Water resources management Water quality 1. River water intake potential assessment and water intake scope expansion plan research. Hydroelectric power 2. Taipower reservoir operation adjustment plan in dry season. Agriculture 3. Farm area adjustment plan. 4. Agricultural reservoir storage capability improvement plan. 5. Irrigated water way adjustment and expansion of hire irrigation scheduling people. Flood protection and sediment control Soil and water conservation 6. Cross-field adaptation on sediment management. Road network 7. Drainage system and road network integration plan. 8. Flood storage improvement research for old watercourse, surrounding land of the river. Land management 9. Urban re-zoned areas flood storage research. 10. Agricultural re-zoned areas flood storage research. Coastal protection Environmental trust 11. Coastal conservation, environmental trust and national spatial planning integration plan. 我們已經初步規劃11項跨域調適方案 This slide shows eleven items about cross-domain adaptation programs was planned preliminarily. 在水資源方面， In water resources management, 首先，希望協調環保單位，優先改善取水潛能較高的河川水質，以利擴大取水範圍。 First, We hope we can coordinate environmental protection office, tell them when they want to get water, the should place high priority on improve the river water quality with high potential, in order to expand the scope of water intake. 再者，現階段臺灣發電水庫的操作，全年都是以發電為主，蓄水為輔；希望協調電力單位，在枯水期，調整為以蓄水為主，發電為輔。 Next, now in Taiwan the priority of power reservoir are mainly for power generation, and then for water storage. We hope we can coordinate power supply company to change the priority in dry season, that is mainly for water storage and then for power generation. 最後，希望協調農業單位，調整耕作區域、改善農業水庫蓄水功能、調整灌區水路、擴大恢復掌水工制度等。 Finally, we hope we can coordinate agricultural units to adjust the farm area, to improve capability of agricultural reservoir storage, to adjust the irrigated water way, and to hire some people to control the supply facilities in the irrigated channel at any time. 在洪水防護與土砂管理方面， In the flood mitigation and Sedimentary management , 首先，希望協調水保單位，共同規劃流域土砂經理計畫。 First, we hope we can coordinate soil and water conservation units to plan watershed sediment management plan jointly. 再者，希望與交通單位合作，整合排水系統與交通路網。 Next, we hope we can cooperate with transportation and communications units to integrate drainage system and road network. 最後，希望協調土地管理單位，為水尋找更多空間，包括：舊河道、河川周邊土地、市地與農地重劃地區擴大蓄滯洪空間。 Finally, we hope we can coordinate land management units to looking for more space for flood storage, include the old watercourse, surrounding land of the river , urban and agricultural re-zoned areas, in order to expand the flood storage space. 在海岸防護方面 希望與環保與土地管理單位合作，推動海岸保育、環境信託與國土規劃整合方案。 In coastal protection, we hope we can coordinate environmental protection and land management units to promote coastal conservation, trust of environment and national spatial planning integrated programs.

3 Exchange topics 以下提出一些交流議題建議。 Now, I like to propose some exchange topics.

Extreme Weather Scenarios Typhoons PMP/PMF Vulnerability Assessment of Water Supply Facilities Watershed disaster management Cross-field Adaptation Potential Inundation Maps Real-time flood and Inundation simulation 第一個議題是如何更合理地設定未來巨災天氣型態?例如：颱風、最大可能降雨等。 The first issue is how to set reasonable future extreme weather patterns, for example: typhoon, the probable maximum precipitation. 在颱風強度方面， 臺灣雖然未完成發展GCM，但仍然嘗試參採各國GCM模擬結果，推估未來侵臺颱風的特性變化。 In typhoon strength, although Taiwan has not developed GCM yet, we still try to adopt GCM simulation results from other countries, in order to estimate Taiwan future invasion of typhoon characteristic change. 依據JMA/MRI GCM動力降尺度結果，對於侵臺颱風強度呈現較樂觀的結果。 According to JMA / MRI GCM dynamical downscaling results for Taiwan invasion of typhoon strength, it showed that we will not face a catastrophic damage from typhoon. 請問貴單位如何解讀JMA/MRI GCM動力降尺度結果？ We would like to ask how do you interpret the JMA / MRI GCM dynamical downscaling results in your country? 在最大可能降雨方面， 臺灣過去只考慮颱風效應，近年開始研究加計東北季風或西南氣流共伴效應。 In the probable maximum precipitation. , Taiwan only considered the typhoon effect in the past research, but we began to study northeast monsoon or southwest airstream accompanied with typhoon in recent years. 請問貴單位有無相關研究規劃？ We would like to ask you do you have any related study plan? 第二個議題是水源設施脆弱度盤查 The second issue is the vulnerability inventory of the water storage facilities 為因應氣候變遷可能造成PMP增加，臺灣已開始研究水庫脆弱度盤查準則， 並評估納入水庫定期安全評估作業流程。 Climate change may cause PMP increase, Taiwan has begun to study the guidelines of reservoir vulnerability inventory and assess to bring it in the reservoir regular safety assessment processes. 請問貴單位有無相關範例？ We would like to ask you that do you had any related example? 第三個議題是流域災害管理 The third issue is the watershed disaster management. 臺灣希望推動流域層級的災害管理，亦即綜合考慮旱災、水砂複合型災害及海岸溢淹災害。 Taiwan hopes to promote watershed disaster management under watershed-level, that is we want to consider the drought, water and sand complex disaster and coastal overflow disaster together. 請問貴單位有無相關範例？ We would like to ask you that do you had any related example? 第四個議題是跨域調適 The fourth issue is cross-domain adaptation. 臺灣規劃推動跨域調適，希望水資源能結合糧食、能源、交通等領域共同合作。 Taiwan plan to promote cross-domain adaptation, we hope the water resources division can cooperate with food, energy, transportation and other division to reach a multiple cooperation. 請問貴單位有無相關經驗？ We would like to ask you that do you had any related experience? 第五個議題為淹水潛勢地圖 台灣目前正辦理各縣市淹水潛勢圖更新製作，採用之雨量資料主要為歷史降雨資料，利用統計方式，採用設計雨型(如Horner公式或SSGM雨型)，進行各重現期之淹水潛勢地點預測。在日本，主要採用歷史真實最大降雨事件進行分析，分析情境亦較單純，請問二者之差異及採用之建議。 In Taiwan, we are now renewing the local flood potential maps. We use return period rainfall data to predict the flood potential location. The return period rainfall data are generated from historical rainfall data, by statistical method and design rainfall pattern, as Horner or SSGM.We know in Japan, you use simpler scenario and real maximum rainfall event in history to analyze the flood potential.. I would like to know the difference between your method and ours; and what do you suggest while applying the flood potential map. 第六個議題為即時淹水模擬 ICHARM對於防災預警模擬及氣候變遷衝擊分析主要採用RRI模式及IFAS系統，台灣在防災淹水這一塊則主要採用荷蘭SOBEK模式進行區域淹水分析(渠道部分可考量河川、排水、下水道、道路側溝、抽水站、滯洪池及水門設施等)完整考慮，然由於區域淹水模擬屬於二維演算，對於區域淹水分析，模式計算時間較長，即時演算較為困難，請問ICHARM所研發RRI模式對於區域淹水模擬演算之時間，與結合氣象預報資料，進行即時分析以提供淹水預警用途之可能性。 ICHARM mainly use RRI model and IFAS system to simulate disaster warning and analyze climate change impact. In Taiwan we mainly use SOBEK model, from Netherlands, to analyze local flood which includes river, drainage system, sewer system, Road-side ditch, pumping station, detention pond, water gate and so on. The local flood analysis, however, is 2-dimention numerical calculation and needs more time to calculate. So It’s difficult to calculate on real time with the SOBEK model .I would like to know the local flood simulation time of the RRI model ,developed by ICHARM, and if I could use this model and weather forecast data to analyze on real time for flood warning purpose.

Hydraulic Engineering and Climate Change Conference at 2015 in Taiwan Date：2015/11/05~06 Location：National Cheng Kung University, Tainan City, Taiwan Website：http://hec22.hyd.ncku.edu.tw/ Sincerely invite ICHARM representatives to Taiwan to give keynote speech and share related experiences on water adaptation. 第七個議題是第 22屆水利工程研討會暨氣候變遷研討會 The 7th issue is the Hydraulic Engineering and Climate Change Conference at 2015 in Taiwan. 台灣將在11月5日、6日在臺南市舉辦水利工程與氣候變遷研討會， 希望能邀請ICHARM代表來臺灣進行專題演講， This conference will be held in Taiwan, Tainan City in this November 5th and 6th . We have the pleasure to invite you to have a keynote speech. 一方面分享ICHARM在水調適的相關經驗與範例， 另一方面也可以與臺灣的水利學者專家共同討論未來如何更加深化合作。 ICHARM can share related experiences and examples on water adaptation We can further discuss how to have further cooperation in the future. 相關資訊可以參考網站，歡迎大家到台灣參訪~ There are related information on the website and welcome to visit Taiwan !

Thank you for your listening! 謝謝大家~ I would like to end my presentation. Thank you for your listening!