The aging process in China in an international perspective Michele Bruni EU-China SPRP Center for Public Policies University of Modena

从国际视角看中国老龄化进程 米凯乐·布鲁尼 中欧社保改革项目 莫德纳大学 公共政策中心

Introduction The aging process is by now starting to seriously affect China and is becoming a very hot topic of political and scholarly debate If data and forecasts are by now largely available, opinions on the consequences of the phenomenon largely differ And there is still ample space: to discuss which indicators should be used to measure the phenomenon and its socioeconomic implications which policies should be adopted to face this phenomenon

导言 老龄化进程现在开始严重地影响中国，成为政策和学术讨论 的热门话题 如果现在可以广泛获得数据和预测，则老龄化现象的结果则 会大大不同 此外还有更广的空间： 用于讨论那些指标可以用来测量老龄化现象及其隐含的社会 经济后果 哪些政策可以用来解决老龄化带来的问题

Goal and structure of the paper The paper aims: to describe the Chinese aging process comparing it with the aging process in Europe and other relevant countries critically assess the demographic indicators of socioeconomic dependency and propose a new set of economic indicators present estimates of both sets of indicators for EU and China discuss the implications of aging using the new indicator of socioeconomic dependency.

本文目标与结构 本文目标是: 在于欧盟和其他相关国家老龄化比较的同时，描述中国老龄化进 程 批判性地评价人口学的经济社会抚养指标，推荐新的经济学指标 以两套指标对欧盟和中国进行预估 运用新的社会经济指标讨论老龄化暗含的影响

Aging: a long term demographic trend China and Europe, as well as numerous other developed and developping countries, are affected by a progressive process of ageing. The causes of this phenomenon are mainly two: the decline in fertility and the increase in life expectancy . The increase in life expectancy is the result of the improvement in life conditions and the progress of medicine The decline in fertility is the result of the demographic transition

老龄化：长期人口趋势 中国、欧盟、还有很多其他发展中和发达国家，都在收到不断推进的老龄化的影响 这一显现的原因主要有二：生育率下降，预期寿命延长 预期寿命的延长是生命条件和医药进步的结果 生育率下降是人口转型的结果

The demographic transition The DT is a process that brings a population from a traditional regime, characterized by high rates of fertility and mortality, to a modern regime, characterized by low fertility and low mortality. The demographic transition started to affect some European countries at the end of the XVIII century and has then spread to other countries together with socioeconomic development. The DT is connected to economic growth and social development, while religious, political and ideological factors play a relevant role in determining its pace and impact.

人口转型 人口转型是人口从传统模式（以高生育率和高死亡率为特征） 转到现代模式（以低生育率和低死亡率为特征）的过程 人口转型从18世纪末就开始影响一些欧洲国家，然后就随经 济社会的发展，扩展到其他国家 人口转型与经济增长和社会发展相联，而宗教、政治、意识 形态因素也在决定其步骤和后果中发挥一定作用。

The phases of the demographic transition

人口转型步骤 第1步 第2步 第3步 死亡率 迅速下降 下降 增长 出生率 保持不变 下降并与死亡率趋于一致 不确定 自然增长率 上升 负增长 年轻人口比率 劳动人口比率 老龄人口比例 在末期开始上升

Number of countries by TFR; 1950-55 and 2010-15 There are already71 countries in which the TFR has already dropped well below 2 and their number will inevitably grow during this century. Therefore the decline in fertility is a world wide phenomenon. Contrary to a largely shared opnion, the DT will not bring, at least during this centyury, to a modern demographic equilibrium.

各国总生育率; 1950-55年和2010-15年 有71个国家总生育率已经下降到2以下。类似国家本世纪必然更多。 生育率下降是全球现象。 与大多数人的观点相反，人口转型（至少在本世纪）不会实现现代人口平衡。

The convergence of Europe and China: total fertility rate and life expectancy in selected periods

欧盟与中国趋于一致：所选时期的总生育率和预期寿命

Europe and China – Crude birth rate, crude death rate and natural rate of growth; 1950-2070

欧盟和中国：粗算生育率、粗算死亡率、自然增长率：1950-2070 Europe China

China - Average yearly number of births, deaths and natural balance (thousand)

中国：每年平均生育人口、死亡人口、自然平衡（每千人）

Europe and China; total population; absolute value, absolute change and percentage change in relevant periods; 1950-2100

欧洲和中国：总人口；绝对值；绝对变化值；比例变化值；1950-2100

The world and China - population structure by main age groups: 1950-2100

世界和中国-人口结果和主要年龄人群：1950-2020

Age Pyramid European Union China

老龄金字塔 中国 欧盟国家

Selected countries; percentage of people 65 and above; 2015, 2030, 2060, 2100

部分国家65岁以上人口比例： 2015, 2030, 2060, 2100 中国 日本 孟加拉 印度 土耳其 法国 德国 意大利 西班牙 部分国家65岁以上人口比例： 2015, 2030, 2060, 2100 中国 日本 孟加拉 印度 土耳其 法国 德国 意大利 西班牙 英国 俄罗斯 埃及 尼日利亚 巴西 美国

Demographic indicators of socioeconomic burden; 1950-2100 The indicators most commonly used are strictly demographic in nature. The Old age dependency ratio (OADR) is computed dividing the number of elderly by the number of people in working age. The ratio between the number of youth (normally 0-14) and the number of people in working age (the Young age dependency ratio, YADR) provides a measure of the socioeconomic burden represented by the children. The sum of the two indicators gives the Total age dependency ratio (TADR), which is normally taken as a measure of the socioeconomic burden of a country

人口指标所衡量的社会经济负担; 1950-2100 这些指标大多严格运用于人口学 老龄抚养比（OADR）是劳动适龄人口和老龄人口的比例。 幼龄（0-14）人口和劳动适龄人口的比例（就是幼龄抚养比）表示儿童所带来的社会经济负担 两项指标之和是总抚养比（TADR），通常用来衡量国家的社会经济负担

Demographic indicators of socioeconomic dependency The world China

不同年龄人口的社会经济抚养比 世界 中国

Selected countries; demographic indicators of dependency; 2015 and 2060

部分国家人口抚养比; 2015和2060 中国 日本 孟加拉 印度 土耳其 法国 德国 意大利 西班牙 英国 俄罗斯 埃及 尼日利亚 巴西 美国

The limits of the demographic indicators of socioeconomic dependency (1) Only one part of the people in working age , sometimes less than 60%, has a formal job; The duration of the training phase of life has greatly increased, and in developed countries the average age of entry in the working phase of life is above 20, while in many developing countries numerous children start working before becoming 15; In some countries the retirement age is below 64 (China is one of them) Differences in the education system, economic and social development, productive specialization and technology create different percentages of students, housewives and unemployed in different countries. In conclusion at present the people in the 15-64 age group do not represent those that maintain, while those in the 0-14 and 15-64 age groups do not represent the sustained.

不同年龄抚养比指标的局限 (1) 只有一部分劳动适龄人口（有时候少于60%）有正式工作； 一生中的培训时间大大延长，发达国家进入工作阶段的平均年龄是20岁以上，而在很多发展中国家，很多少年在未满15岁就参与劳动； 在一些国家，退休年龄为64岁以下（中国为其中之一） 教育制度、经济社会发展、生产专业部门和技术的不同，导致不同国家在学生、居家妇女和失业人口比例上的不同 总而言之，当前15-64岁之间的人口并不完全是顶梁柱，而0-14岁和15-64岁（？）的不完全得到扶助

The limits of the demographic indicators of socioeconomic dependency (2) In conclusion the demographic indicators are not a good measure of socioeconomic dependency Moreover: The differences in the age of entries and exits make cross section analyses highly misleading; While the increase in life duration and in the training phase of life will bring, in not too far a future, to raise retirement age, and to modify the definition of working age first to 20-70 and then to 25-74; this will make extremely difficult to make inter-temporal comparisons.

不同年龄抚养比指标的局限 (2) 总而言之，上述人口性指标不是测量社会经济负担的好工具。 此外: 进入工作、推出工作的年龄差别导致跨部门分析具有高度误导性； 在不久的将来，寿命和培训时段的延长将会，退休年龄延迟、工作年龄从20-70岁改为25-74岁；这回导致同时期比较变得极度困难。

TEDI: an economic indicator of socioeconomic dependency (1) The problems we have just outlined can be easily solved by substituting Employment to WAP. Adopting this approach, the Total economic dependency indicator (TEDI) is computed by dividing the total number of dependents by the number of employed, in substance the number of those that do not work by those that have a job. TEDI tells us how many people are sustained, in a given area or in a given country by 1,000 workers.

总经济抚养比(TEDI)：测量经济社会的经济学指标（1）

TEDI: an economic indicator of socioeconomic dependency (2) Moreover the economic indicators allows: Estimating the structural burden by real typologies of dependents: students, non-labour force in working age, unemployed, retired, etc.; Verify in which measure the changes in the structural burden are due, on the one hand, to demographic tendencies and, on the other, to the capacity (or lack of capacity) of the economic system to generate additional employment; Estimate the growth of employment, and therefore of production, needed to obtain a given level of structural burden.

总经济抚养比(TEDI)：测量经济社会的经济学指标（2） 此外，这一经济学指标还可以: 估算真实的被抚养人群所带来的结构性负担，即：学生、处于劳动年龄的非劳动力、失业人口、退休人口等； 可以一方面验证结构性负担中哪一变化源自于人口变化趋势，另一方面验证经济体系是否有产生新增就业的能力。 估算为应对结构性负担所需的就业增长量，并由此估算相应的生产增长量。

EU - Total and specific rates of economic dependecny TEDI Shares of specific rates

欧盟：总体和分门经济抚养比率 总体经济抚养比 分门经济抚养比

EU: Population, employed, Inactive from 1991 to 2015

欧盟：1991-2015人口、就业人口、无业人口 人口 就业 无业 人口 就业 无业 人口 就业 无业 绝对值 绝对变化 年度比例变化

EU From 1991 to 2015 the number of dependents for 1,000 workers has been, equal, on the average, to 1,334, but notable variations have been registered. TEDI reached a maximum value of 1,450 in 1994, then progressively declined during the long expansionary phase that lasted till 2008 when registered a minimum of 1,216. During the financial crisis TEDI increased again reaching a new maximum in 2013 when a new phase of decline came in. In 2015 it was equal to 1,274. TEDI presents a long term negative trend, that is the socioeconomic burden has been progressively declining in spite of the growth in total population; It is characterized by short term oscillation which are explained by the economic cycle; it increases in period of crisis, declines in period of growth; Is characterized by a progressive decline of the share of the young, a progressive growth of the share of elderly, while the share of the dependents in working age has been substantially constant and remains the most relevant group.

欧盟 1991-2015年，每1000位在职人口抚养的人平均相当于1334人，但也有巨大变动。 总经济抚养比在1994年达到最高值：1450，然后逐渐下降，最后到2008年变成最低值：1216。在金融危机期间，总经济抚养比再次上涨，在2013年达到新高，之后又下降。2015年，达到1274. 总经济抚养比长期保持负值，就表示虽然总人口增长，但社会经济负担逐渐下降。 其中也有短期的动荡，这是经济周期导致的。在经济危机期间增长，在经济增长期间下降。 总经济抚养比的特征是：年轻人口比例逐渐下降、老龄人口逐渐上涨，而劳动适龄但依靠抚养的人口则保持恒定，且也是能影响抚养比的人群。

China - Total rates of economic dependency and its determinants In the 1995-2015 period, TEDI registered an average value of 761, the single values being included in a very small interval: in 1995, 1,000 employed sustained 779 dependents that declined to 750 in 2004 to then climb back to 775. · The RoG of TP and EMP have been declining; · Between 1995 and 2004 AYrGE>AYrGP · Between 2004 and 2015 AYrGE<AYrGP

中国- 总经济抚养比（TEDI）及其决定因素 人 口 就 业 无 业 绝对值 绝对变化值 比例变化值 1995-2015年期间, 总经济抚养比平均为 761, 各乃年单项总经济抚养比相差区间很小: 1995年，每 1,000 位职工抚养779 人，然后下降到2004年的750人， 2004之后又上升到775. 总人口和就业人口下降： · 1995 -2004年 AYrGE >AYrGP · 2004 -2015年 AYrGE<AYrGP

Specific economic dependency ratios

Economic dependency ratios 分类经济抚养比 幼龄 无业 老龄 总人口 Economic dependency ratios 幼龄 无业 老龄

China -Urban Areas; Total rates of economic dependency and its determinants The values of urban TEDY are much higher than those of the country as a whole, the average over the 1995 to 2015 period being equal to 940. Moreover this indicator presents a wider range and opposite trends, increasing from an initial value of 847 to a maximum of 997 in 2003 to then decline to 908 in 2015.

中国-城镇地区总经济抚养比及其决定因素 人 口 就 业 无 业 绝对值 绝对变化值 比例变化值 城镇总经济抚养比高于全国总经济抚养比, 1995 – 2015年平均相当于 940。此外，此项指标取值范围很大，走势互逆, 从最开始的847 到2003年的最大值997，然后降到2015年的 908.

Chinese provinces - age structure

中国各省份年龄结构

Chinese provinces - Youth and elderly percentages

中国各省份- 幼龄、老龄比例

Demographic indicators

人口抚养指标 幼龄比 老龄比 总比 老年人% 幼龄比 老龄比 总比 老年人%

Chinese provinces - Total dmographic dependency ratios and percentage of elderly dependents; 2015

中国各省份-总人口抚养比和老龄依养人比例，2015年

Chinese provinces - TEDI; 2010

中国各省份- 总经济抚养指数; 2010年

China and EU; Population age structure, demographic indicators and economic indicators of dependency; 2015

中国-欧盟：人口年龄结构、人口和经济抚养指标；2015年 人 口 年 龄 结 构 人 口 学 抚 养 比 经 济 学 抚 养 比 幼龄比 老龄比 总抚养比 幼龄 无业 老龄 总经济抚养比

Total population and demographic indicators

总人口和人口抚养指标 总 人 口 人口学抚养指标 总数 幼龄比 老龄比 总抚养比 绝 对 值 绝 对 值 比 例 构 成 比 例 构 成 总 人 口 人口学抚养指标 总数 幼龄比 老龄比 总抚养比 绝 对 值 绝 对 值 比 例 构 成 比 例 构 成 绝 对 变 化 值

Economic indicators; scenarios

经济抚养指标；预测情景 就业 人口 就业 率 ？就业 ？就业 ？就业 总 人 口 经济抚养指标 幼 龄 无 业 老 龄 总抚养比 总 人 口 就业 人口 就业 率 经济抚养指标 幼 龄 无 业 老 龄 总抚养比 无 移 民 情 景 预 测 恒 定 就 业 率 ？就业 就 业 率-70 ？就业 有 移 民 情 景 预 测 2015-2030 ？就业