Servizio SEC, Bank of Italy Recent Developments of Income Inequality in Italy: Differences across age classes 意大利近期收入不公平的发展情况： 年龄组别的不同 Francesca Carta Servizio SEC, Bank of Italy 意大利银行 Rome, 19/10/2018 罗马，2018年10月19日

Overview: trends in income inequality in Italy 概况：意大利收入不公平的趋势 The Great Recession did not significantly worsen the level of inequality in Italy. 经济大衰退并没有严重恶化意大利的不公平程度。 We are slowly going back to ‘90s levels of income inequality. 我们现在缓慢回到90年代收入不公平的水平。 Gini index on equivalised disposable income 等值可支配收入的基尼系数 Source: Survey on Household Income and Wealth, Bank of Italy. 来源：居民收入和财富调查，意大利银行。 2 2

Overview: trends in poverty in Italy 概况：意大利的贫困趋势 However, the economic crisis did not come without a cost. People became poorer: the income distribution shifted towards the left, such that all individuals were poorer (Brandolini, 2014). 然而，经济危机也带来一定代价。人民变得更加贫穷：收入分配向左偏移，因此所有人都变得更加贫穷。 Share of families and individuals living in absolute poverty 绝对贫困的家庭和个人所占比例 Source: Indagine sulle spese delle famiglie, Istat. 3 3

Italy in comparison with the EU 意大利与欧盟情况比较 Among EU countries, Italy is highly unequal: in 2016 the Gini index of equivalised disposable income was higher than the EU28 average (33.1 and 30.8%, respectively; Eurostat data). 在所有欧盟国家中，意大利的不公平程度最高：2016年等值可支配收入的基尼系数高于欧盟28国平均水平（分别为33.1%和30.8%，欧盟统计局数据）。 The risk of poverty or social exclusion was 30.0 % among Italians, while 23.5% for Europeans in 2016. 2016年，在所有意大利人民中，贫困或社会排斥风险为30.0%，而欧洲人民为23.5%。 Looking at market income (before redistribution through the tax-transfer system), the Gini index in Italy is lower than the EU28 average (49.4 vs. 51.6%). 市场收入方面（再分配之前、通过税收-转移体系），意大利的基尼系数比欧盟28国平均水平更低（49.4%比51.6%） Our welfare system seems to be not particularly redistributive, especially for young families. 我们的福利体系的再分配功能不是很明显，尤其是对年轻家庭的再分配。 The Great Recession had different impact across age classes. 大衰退对不同年龄组别产生了不同影响。 4 4

Trends in real equivalized income across age classes 不同年龄组别实际等值收入的趋势 In 2006-2016, real equivalised income fell by 20.9% for persons living in ‘young’ households (head of household <=40 y.o.). 2006-2016年间，生活在“年轻”家庭人口的实际等值收入下降了20.9%（家庭支柱人员小于40岁。） Real equiv. income of persons in ‘old’ households (head of household 65+ y.o.) rose by 1.6%. 生活在“老年”家庭人口的实际等值收入提高了1.6%（家庭支柱人员高于65岁。） Equivalised household income (2006=100) 等值家庭收入 Source: Survey on Household Income and Wealth, Bank of Italy. 来源：居民收入和财富调查，意大利银行。 5 5

Younger families are poorer 年轻的家庭更贫穷 In 2006 the risk of poverty was similar for people living in these two types of households. 2006年，这两类家庭人口的贫困风险相同。 Risk of relative poverty 相对贫困风险 Source: Survey on Household Income and Wealth, Bank of Italy. 来源：居民收入和财富调查，意大利银行。 In 10 years, the risk of poverty rose for persons belonging to young households, such that in 2016 it is twice that for those living in old households (at 32.5 and 15.7 per cent respectively). 近十年来，年轻家庭人口的贫困风险上升，2016年是老年家庭人口贫困风险升高的两倍（分别为32.5%和15.7%）。 6 6

同一年龄组别内不公平上升，尤其是年轻人口 Inequality within age classes increased, especially among younger individuals 同一年龄组别内不公平上升，尤其是年轻人口 Mean log deviation (values) 平均对数偏差（值） Source: Survey on Household Income and Wealth, Bank of Italy. 来源：居民收入和财富调查，意大利银行。 The poorer conditions of young individuals are also associated to higher levels of income inequality within that age class. It dramatically increased since 2012. 年轻人口的贫穷状态与该年龄组别内高水平的收入不公平有关；收入不公平程度自2012年严重升高。 Income inequality among individuals living in old families is significantly lower and rather stable. 老年家庭人口的收入不公平很低并且基本保持稳定。 7 7

Possible reasons 可能的原因 These developments reflect: 这些发展情况反应了： the higher cyclicality of employment income than pension income 就业收入比养老金收入的周期性更强。 composition effects, due to the growing percentage among young households of foreign-born, whose levels of income are lower on average 结构效应，年轻家庭中外国出生人口的比例越来越高，其收入低于平均水平。 the characteristics of the Italian welfare system, historically more generous when it comes to pensions and less so in support of households in financial distress. 意大利福利体系的特点，传统来讲养老金金额较高，但在金融危机期间对家庭的福利支持力度较低。 Since January 2018, a minimum income scheme has been implemented in Italy (Reddito di inclusione, Rei). 自2018年1月起，意大利开始实施最低收入制度(Reddito di inclusione, Rei)。 New proposal by the newly elected Government, Reddito di cittadinanza. No much details about it, it would figure out as a minimum income scheme for families, similarly to Rei. 新一届政府提出了新的议案。目前没有更多详细信息，但有可能为家庭最低收入计划，与Rei相类似。 8 8

Decomposition of inequality levels in the between and the within components 不同组别间和组别内不公平程度的分解分析 Decomposition of the mean log deviation (values) 平均对数偏差（数值）的分解 Source: Survey on Household Income and Wealth, Bank of Italy. 来源：居民收入和财富调查，意大利银行。 Between component: distance in average equivalised income across age classes 组别间：不同年龄组别的平均等值收入的距离。 Within component: weighted average of within group dispersion. 组别内：人群离差的加权平均数。 The between component shows a cyclical pattern; the within component largely explains the overall increase in inequality. 组别间呈周期性模式，同一部分间的情况很大程度上解释了不平等程度总体上升的原因。 9 9

The role of the age structure 年龄结构的作用 The rise in inequality was partly mitigated by changes that occurred during the same period in the population’s age structure. 相同时期人口年龄结构的变化部分减轻了不平等程度的上升。 Between 2006-2016, the share of individuals living in young households fell by 10 pp., while those belonging to old households rose by around 5 pp. 2006-2016年期间，生活在年轻家庭的人口比例下降了10个百分点，而生活在老年家庭的人口比例提高了5个百分点。 These developments reflect the ageing of the population and the decision by more and more young persons to postpone new households formation 这些发展情况反应出人口年龄化，以及越来越多的年轻人决定推迟组成新的家庭。 If these changes are cancelled out – we keep population shares at 2006 level – the rise in inequality is would have been greater. 如果这些变化相互抵消—我们可以将人口保持在2006年水平—不平等水平将会更加严重。 Observed and counterfactual levels of income inequality mean log deviation (values) deviation (values) 收入不平等的观察和反事实水平 平均对数偏差（数值） Source: Survey on Household Income and Wealth, Bank of Italy. 来源：居民收入和财富调查，意大利银行。 10 10

Summing up 总结 Overall, income inequality levels remained rather stable during the period 2006-2016, but poverty rates dramatically increased. 总体来讲，2006-2016年期间收入不平等水平保持稳定，但是贫困率还是显著提高。 The costs of the economic crisis have been mainly borne by younger households. 经济危机带来代价主要由年轻家庭承担。 Changes in household formation and composition may have played a role in accommodating negative income shocks. 组成家庭以及家庭结构的变化可能在应对收入负面冲击方面，起到重要作用。 11 11